Omri Marian: This is a dramatic shift, and the burden is now, for the first time since 10/7, 100% on Israel.

This is a dramatic shift, and the burden is now, for the first time since 10/7, 100% on Israel.

Hamas officially accepts the current ceasefire proposal.

הנייה הודיע למצרים ולקטאר: "מקבלים את תנאי הפסקת האש"www.ynet.co.il יממה אחרי הדיווחים שהשיחות "בדרך לפיצוץ", ובצל תחילת פינוי האזרחים מרפיח, ראש הלשכה המדינית של ארגון הטרור הודיע למתווכות על הסכמתו לתנאי הפסקת האש

Please God, whatever happens, don't let Bibi reject this and then Blinken issue a statement of how upset our administration is while sending more munitions.

It's not often I see something that makes me audibly say "wow."

Also masterful diplomacy by Hamas. If Israel says "yes", Bibi loses his government. If Israel says "no" it loses a ton of global support, including from the US.

Question out of ignorance - is that calculation really likely to be on Hamas' mind? If that's the motivation, I feel like they could have made this same strategic play at a lot of different points over the past 6 months.

I think the current deal is the best they could hope for, and the masterful diplomacy I referred to is making it seem like they are going to accept it without accepting it, getting Bibi nervous and making stupid statements, getting Israelis to the streets, and then actually accepting it.

Seems like Bibi's threats re: Rafah blew up on him. Because Hamas could have done this ages ago. But maybe they feared the invasion. So now they have.

Does the Hebrew article contain any details at all on the proposed specifics? The English Reuters article has nothing.

It just references the "Egyptian proposal", which is the one that has been on the table for the past few weeks. They will probably update it soon to include details.

Some of the specifics in here fwiw www.i24news.tv/en/news/isra...

Egyptian proposal outlines return of all hostages and phased end to Gaza war - I24NEWSwww.i24news.tv The agreement comprises three distinct stages aimed at achieving a temporary cessation of hostilities, the release of hostages, and a pathway towards sustainable peace in the region

Sounds like all civilian hostages for partial withdrawal, then the remaining soldiers for total withdrawal, but I imagine the sticking point then is that vague bit about who's left in charge of post-withdrawal Gaza. I don't see how simply reverting to Hamas is tenable, but then what else is?

IL media saying this isn't actually Hamas agreeing to a ceasefire deal, but perhaps them agreeing to some terms within a ceasefire deal, so need to work out whether this is a full agreement to the US/Qatari/Egypt deal, or something else

Gonna have to wait for QA/EG announcement

To distract ourselves from this mess and think about an earlier one: have you read about the exact sequence of events with Austria-Hungary and Serbia regarding the ultimatum after Franz Ferdinand's death? It's wild.

It sucks I have to wait. Will write my rep at that point about what I think.

Right, though in my understanding this is the first time Hamas has officially accepted a 40 day offer vs a permanent ceasefire. Which is still a substantial move. As Omri was saying if Bibi tanks it now it’s unconscionable and all on Israel.

Thank you for this.

That's what I was wondering. 'Accepting' what the Egyptians were proposing isn't the same thing as accepting terms the Israelis had already offered, no?

Yes, though Israel seemed ready to accept it (even though it did not do so officially) until this weekend, when Bibi got nervous that Hamas may also accept it.

If Bibi blows this deal up it's going to be very very bad.

www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Hamas accepts Egypt, Qatar's ceasefire proposal, Al Jazeera reportswww.reuters.com Hamas told Egyptian and Qatari mediators that it had accepted their Gaza ceasefire proposal, Qatari broadcaster Al Jazeera reported on Monday, citing a leading Hamas official.

This is basically the same as what you’re saying.

For the first time ? Are you sure ? (mars is march)

Damn. This is going to be interesting

You mean that one day after Hamas killed three soldiers at the Border, where good, water and other goods were sent into Gaza by Israel and right after the start of the evacuation of Rafah, Hamas Said, they would accept a ceasefire? 🤔 Well, then any further combats must be the fault of Israel. 🙄

Yes, this is indeed what I mean, but unironically.

As much as I hope for the return of the hostages, I am afraid of a never ending war after the next ceasefire. There is no was, Israel will ever let Hamas recover and take back control over Gaza. There will have to be a solution without Hamas, to give Palestinians a chance for prolonging peace.

They’ve signaled their willingness to ok it for a few days now (2 or 3)

Maybe the move against Rafah tilted the balance? (But perhaps the move against Rafah is no bluff.)

I just literally gasped at the push notification on my phone. Now hoping, hoping, hoping…

I don’t know, my hopefulness has sunk after reading this: www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...

TV report: Israeli officials say not the same proposal they agreed to with Egyptian mediators 10 days agowww.timesofisrael.com * * *

Post