Omar Wasow

@owasow.bsky.social

2842

Followers

1712

Following

725

Posts

Asst Prof, UC Berkeley, Political Science. Study protests, stats & race: 1/ Agenda Seeding http://j.mp/agenda-seeding 2/ Race as a Bundle of Sticks http://j.mp/bundle-of

Posts Replies Media

Reply to

Pope Ramsey

In NYT swing state polling, Biden is losing MI, WI and PA.

Reply to

svateboje.bsky.social

Economist says it “combines state and national polls with economic indicators” so they're including some fundamentals. Ironically, it seems like 538, who made their name in polling aggregation, is putting relatively more weight on the economy and The Economist is putting more weight on polls.

The other big difference is that 538 has Biden up slightly in three swing states (WI, MI, PA). Neither The Economist nor the NYT estimates Biden ahead in any swing state.

Finally, this link gives a little more insight into how 538 estimates each component individually and together. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-electio...

For a change of pace (gift link): www.nytimes.com/2024/07/15/s...

Is This the Craziest Sneaker You Have Ever Seen?www.nytimes.com On and Hellen Obiri are taking the running-shoe game to a whole new level. Yes, spray-on shoes are happening.

Reply to

Omar Wasow

The prediction divergence expands: Economist now has Biden at 1 in 5. www.economist.com/interactive/... 538 has Biden up slightly, winning 53 out of 100 times. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-electio...

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?projects.fivethirtyeight.com 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Joe Biden’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

Reposted by

Omar Wasow

"Separately, the young Black man and the pit bull make people cross to the other side of the street; together, they are a picture of unmitigated threat”--Claire Kim, Dangerous Crossings. That's the epigraph for our new article, "The Racialization of Pit Bulls" journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel confirms that a Columbus, Ohio, police officer detailed to the RNC shot and killed a homeless Black man (earlier reported to be in his early 20s) more than half a mile from the RNC arena. The man was known by the nickname Jehovah and took care of a pit bull named Isis.

Ohio police officer shoots, kills person in Milwaukee outside of RNC perimeter, sources saywww.jsonline.com The man killed by Ohio officers near the RNC on Tuesday was well-known in the neighborhood, several witnesses told the Journal Sentinel.

The racialization of pit bulls: What dogs can teach us about racial politicsjournals.plos.org Many have argued that discrimination against pit bulls is rooted in the breed’s association with Black owners and culture. We theoretically and empirically interrogate that argument in a variety of wa...

Both Gandhi and Rabin were assassinated by extremists from their own communities. Given evidence so far, seems entirely plausible Trump shooter was similarly motivated by mix of glory seeking and ideas about “tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots & tyrants.”

Reply to

Andrea Grimes

I really like the Fitbod app as a kind of low-cost personal trainer that also logs exercises and suggests new routines / loads based on past workouts and which muscles are “fresh.” On issue of soreness, I've been toying with an approach in which I do fewer sets, slowly, to failure and it helps.

This podcast episode starts a little too technical but in first 10 min becomes accessible and practical for how to strength train so as to avoid / recover from most common running injuries. Goal of strength without bulk and to avoid injury, applies more generally. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...

‎Science Of Ultra: Tendons And Sinews With Keith Baar, PhD on Apple Podcastspodcasts.apple.com ‎Show Science Of Ultra, Ep Tendons And Sinews With Keith Baar, PhD - Sep 20, 2017

Reposted by

Omar Wasow

Reply to

Eugene Finkel

When I was young & hothead & bitching about something, my father, who started his anti-colonial activism when he was barely 12, looked at me & said: “tu n’est jamais plus important que la cause” (you are never more important than the cause you serve)

One other irony of the assassination attempt is that the shooter was plausibly following a core conservative and libertarian case for a broad reading of the 2nd Amendment. Scalia wrote, “when the able-bodied men of a nation are trained in arms and organized, they are better able to resist tyranny.”

Walter Mitty Syndrome?

Before he allegedly fired the shots heard around the country, Thomas Matthew Crooks barely made a sound. talkingpointsmemo.com/news/thomas-...

Shocked Classmates Remember ‘Awfully Quiet’ Trump Shooter Tom Crookstalkingpointsmemo.com Before he allegedly fired the shots heard around the country, Thomas Matthew...

Adversarial state leader: “Should we spend billions on advanced weapons to challenge the US?” Strategic military leader: “No need, we’re just going to post a lot The Secret Assassin and Insurrectionist Life of Walter Mitty short stories to discord.”

Like Jan 6, one of the wilder aspects of the shooting is that a total amateur was able to so easily penetrate the American security state.

Reposted by

Omar Wasow

Reopening my Serwer hymnal

Reply to

Craig M. Ranapia

1. It’s not just self presentation: bsky.app/profile/owas... 2. Many (most?) effects work probabilistically. If X causes Y only 1% of the time, in a population of millions that could still be meaningful. Also, noting the effect of X does not preclude other, possibly more important effects.

Former classmate of Trump rally gunman says he was ‘bullied almost everyday’ youtu.be/NVMtQ4piGR8?...

Former classmate of Trump rally gunman says he was ‘bullied almost every day’youtu.be A former classmate of the 20-year-old Pennsylvania man law enforcement identified as the shooter who opened fire at former President Donald Trump’s rally say...

Reposted by

Omar Wasow

As a white boy who was called faggot & every other name from 6th grade through the Navy, I was bullied half of my life by the age of 21. I was beat up, kicked, sexually assaulted - the works. Never once did I ever think about finding my father's gun and opening fire on those bullies.

From Angry White Men by Michael Kimmel: “Virtually every one of the shooters described their school days as a relentless gauntlet of bullying, gay-baiting epithets, physical assault, and harassment until they ‘snapped.’”

Reply to

Kat Z

Guns are necessary but not sufficient. Millions of guns in US but attempted assassination is rare. Similarly, psychological factors like being a victim of bullying are useful but not sufficient, as many are bullied and don’t retaliate. Luckily, we can hold multiple ideas in our heads at once.

Angry White Men by Michael Kimmel summarizes some research comparing school shooters and suicide bombers: “both groups were composed of young people who had troubled childhoods, suffered from low self-esteem, sought revenge from a precipitant personal crisis, were eager for fame and glory…”

Former classmate of Trump rally gunman says he was ‘bullied almost everyday’ youtu.be/NVMtQ4piGR8?...

Reposted by

Omar Wasow

Kimmel can be so good on some things and so bad on others. This chapter -- which concludes that school shootings take place because of "jockocracy" -- is Real Bad. For one thing, plenty of high school girls get assaulted, and we have yet to see an epidemic of female shooters.

Reposted by

Omar Wasow

You know who else could describe their school days as a relentless gauntlet of bullying, gay-baiting epithets, physical assault, and harassment? Actual gay people

Reposted by

Omar Wasow

My colleagues & I have studied the social media aftermath of mass shooting events for a decade. We’re still processing the horrifying, abhorrent, and tragic event yesterday, which appears to be an assassination attempt on former President Trump. In case they're useful, here are some first thoughts:

Reposted by

Omar Wasow

Danyel Smith got a story to tell. Damn. And thank-you, @danyelsmith.bsky.social for your bravery and honesty. www.nytimes.com/2024/07/12/m...

I Knew Diddy for Years. What I Now Remember Haunts Me.www.nytimes.com Looking back on my life as a woman in the music industry, I’m unsettled by the inescapable sexism perpetrated by Sean Combs and others.

Reposted by

Omar Wasow

The party can't decide. Or it can't implement its decision. Or there really isn't a "party"---just pundits and podcasters. wapo.st/3S7hxXT

Opinion | Why we’re still arguing about whether Biden will quitwapo.st The president insists he’s running. The news media say he might not be. Here’s why.

Reply to

Prisonculture

Years ago, in February, Esquire did a *White* Issue and I think it was an essay by James McBride that included a line, “there’s a certain kind of white person who really loves black people, especially in CD format.”

345 followers, 17k posts

Correct, but also, why is Bouie such a whiny baby? Thinnest-skinned guy around…