yarrriv

50% of the country wanted him, the other 50% didn't. But even here, 40% of the country still voted Con+Reform. Maybe the fallacy is the idea of the national mood

Reply to

Central NJ Yimby

If I followed the 2016 elections in the US purely via the press and at the end you told me Trump won, without handing me the actual vote tally, I would have thought that this is what the country wanted. But it wasn't! He got fewer votes!

And notably the press coverage post-2016 is unanimously "Trump is what the country chose", using the electoral result rather than what people voted for

Reply to

Central NJ Yimby

Yes, but, again, how does the media know what the public wants outside of running with the election results.

Reply to

Central NJ Yimby

how do you know what the British people want?

This is a serious question, what you get is either polling, or the mood of the press. But the latter is strongly influenced by the parliamentary results, so you get reporting of the national mood that fits the those, not vice versa

Reply to

post malone ergo propter malone

it's part of their roleplay

Reply to

Cloud's Strife

I think Jon Stewart's rally to restore sanity is instructive, political satire works better when you really can needle both sides

Reply to

Franklin D. Roosefella

You do get stuff like this, where a large chunk of the voters, more than 30%, went from Con to LD, something you basically never see in the US

Labour got 61% of seats on 34% of the vote; generously accounting for tactical voting, Lab+LD+Green account for 52.8% of the vote - a majority! - and got 79% of seats

Reply to

Franklin D. Roosefella

Lib Dems sat in government with the Tories in 2010, so in I'm not sure they would necessarily fit in with Labor. Maybe more so since Brexit, because the UK got a kind of American polarization around leave/remain

Reply to

Cloud's Strife

I would say 2003, but later in the year

Reply to

lowtax speedrun enjoyer

FPP with multiple parties, who does that

I do seem to recall that in 2019 it was the opposite, conservatives only got a small bump from the previous election but picked up a lot of seats because of a labour/lib dem split

Reply to

工an Monroe 🚰

Keir has to whip his head back and forth between the hot and cold taps to wash his

Reply to

chatham harrison is tending a new garden

A liberal supermajority led by a bland white man with good hair and zero interest in reshaping the status quo? Over here in America we call that California

the thing where the ambition of state-level Democrats is inverse to the size of their majorities is kind of funny

Reply to

Jo_clever_ke

Yeah I guess this is just not the kind of result you come back from

Starmer in the news today means we're gonna get at least three op-eds about Gavin Newsome in the Times tomorrow

so what's going on in Europe with women only ever leading right-wing parties, mostly far right

Reply to

Cyneheard

It's a smaller margin than the tightest forecast! I mean obviously it's still a landslide but I wonder if expectations mean this is seen as a win for Sunak

Reply to

Keith

Starmer's gonna go to LeBron?

Reply to

Flying Mezerkis

Yeah, the prediction I linked to at the top was Lab 480 Con 65, so much worse than the exit polls

Reply to

Flying Mezerkis

I got it from George but the BBC etc have coverage I assume

*UK LABOUR PROJECTED TO WIN 410 SEATS OUT OF 650: EXIT POLL

looks like a big miss for the seat predictions in the UK, interested to see if it's going to be a polling miss or a modeling miss (or maybe just exit polls are wrong!)

Survation MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997 | Survationwww.survation.com With two days until polls open, Survation predict that Labour will win the 2024 general election with 484 out of a total 650 seats. The...

Reply to

George Pearkes

The Survation MRP said 484

Reply to

Steve Zorowitz

Expectation was that tories/lib dems would be neck and neck for second place, so this is not as bad as it could have been for them

Reply to

Micheál Keane

local party gets RAILED all night long