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This for me is just Emails 2.0, which is why I am glad this happened now instead of October.
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Assuming the biden cold is true, he'll do a media event in the coming days where he's clear and he sounds normal and the race will continue
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honestly i'll put down a marker: the conventional wisdom will emerge amongst the commentariat that it was a total and unmitigated disaster for joe biden, and in response joe biden will gain at least a point in the polls over the next month
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once again its very cute that everyone who has poisoned their brains thinks that this election is going to be about anything other than abortion, the thing donald trump looked down the barrel of a camera and said it was good to ban
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Pouring one out for the "Trump is a moderate on Abortion" takes
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pouring one out for AG Sulzberger, who is continuing to put his face to the belt sander to learn that his newspaper does not actually dictate terms to the united states electorate
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I really don’t think folks understand how badly these legacy media owners want to be the Murdoch of the left and play political kingmaker alongside the other billionaires. They have zero concept of being an integral part of a representative democracy. It’s power, money, influence - period.
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“of the left” is doing an absolutely biblical amount of lifting here
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Well, there are only so many characters here and I didn’t want to write a dissertation about how the democrats are actually more like right wing parties overseas, and we don’t have a true left movement, but in America “Left” = “Democrats” for most folks.
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That "no one liked roe" comment is gonna basically blanket the air waves for the next 4 months, and the comenrariat is just like "so what?"
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"Everyone hated Roe, everyone loved it when I banned it" is going to be in attack ads from now until November.
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*Deep political-ad voice* "Really? *Everyone?*" *Rapid-cuts between high-profile cases involving forced birth, with local incidents mixed into relevant states.*
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Abortion is the biggest weakness of the Rs bar none and Trump just willingly shivved himself in the ribs over it. I refuse to believe, especially after 2022, that isn't going to matter one jot because the public magically stopped noticing how much forced birth sucks.
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It's not like we haven't seen how forced birth has gone every time it's come up for a vote since Dobbs
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Oh, but don't you see, the American Voting Public are all brain-damaged and can't connect forced birth with the parties responsible, so they'll just remember Biden was president at the time and vote against him en masse!
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That's the one silver lining for me, the biggest gaff didn't come from Biden.
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This is literally the only part of the debate I heard (because I was getting dinner in the kitchen) and "I'm chill. Leave it up to the states Texas is doing it's thing. Florida is doing it's thing. It's no big deal" did not sound like a winner to me
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i hope everyone in swing states enjoys that quote because it's gonna be on their tvs and youtube ads 9,000 times per day for the next five months
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Also, the "everyone was happy I overturned Roe" one. Where they have someone tell their tragic, emotional, and relatable story with abortion care and cut that line in every 10 seconds
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and instagram ads too! been seeing tons of those.
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Thank you for providing a sanity check.
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I look forward to them tweeting about this with increasingly huffy disbelief like they did every other time Joe Biden has come out ahead. They will never understand why the security guard at the New York Times loves him & they will platform anyone who says she really doesn't
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I admit---and I'm on the "that was not an unmitigated disaster" train---if he comes out ahead I am going to wail "what do voters even want?"
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I love to confirm my own priors and my prior for the last six years has been 'voters want Donald Trump to Go Away'
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🌏🧍Orange man bad? 💁Always has been
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the ideal debate result for Biden might actually be for him to go get some ice cream and watch a movie while Trump free-associates alone onstage for two hours. the more people hear Trump speak, the more they're reminded of how nuts he is and his incumbency was.
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I figured that would be the move, in a manner of speaking, but they didn't prep him that way & the moderators didn't give him an inch (I can hear them now: "Why would we 'go easy' on the President of the United States?")
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And the voters will wail back "WE DON'T KNOW WE JUST KNOW WE'RE NOT GETTING IT"
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The pundit class freaking out is a stark contrast to the little evidence we have from voters(which seeped into the CNN after show to no impact) that focus groups veered towards Biden as Trump got more vicious. Even a Latino undecided group came away saying they’d vote for Biden after the debate!
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bsky.app/profile/phoe...
Apparently better for Biden than in English language media. Undecided Latino voters chose Biden over Trump because Biden stuttered, he answered the questions. Trump didn't answer any questions, unless irrelevant lies count as answers:
You will never be a professional consultant by making falsifiable predictions