ryan cooper: the only realistic way to do this would have been to run someone else starting a year ago. they didn’t and here we are

the only realistic way to do this would have been to run someone else starting a year ago. they didn’t and here we are

I don’t think we are! I think they are going to flail around, discover every plausible replacement polls as bad or worse and that doing so would violate every principle of the recently rewritten party bylaws bsky.app/profile/dana...

Well we’re about to find out what the unrealistic way to do it is

I think what will happen is half the lib media compulsively repeating the Trump campaign’s core message

we're now talking about this instead of Trump promising to signature drone strike the Hamburgalur

The very same Hamburglar that HIS ADMINISTRATION pardoned in 2019 😤

Trump could have a seizure on stage and vomit up ketchup and the GOP machine would still say he’s perfect and inevitable and the best debater in history. Christ, Dems love to beat themselves.

Dems started every presidential election since 2012 with the perspective "This is perfect, the other guys are so awful, we don't have to do anything and the nation will see us as the only option" and then the media, demanding a horse race, normalizes the opponent until it's an oh shit moment.

I’d go back to even 2008, as soon as Palin entered the race (and ruined our lives). The media somehow took that vomit bucket of a person and made her out to be a serious challenge to…ah fuck Biden has been at this for a long time!

Lmao. Palin was such a funny choice. Total head full of rocks. I think McCain would have won with an approachable midwestern military wonk at his side. Evangelicals aren't going to stay home. Voting is like... all they do. Remember how much media was slobbering over McCain as a war hero, etc.

I am a massive Biden fan (from other side of the pond) but as the pressure mounts and the campaign takes its toll, his symptoms will worsen. Biden is going to lose this election. They must find an alternative.

nobody knows what is going to happen. sophisticated analyses have it at a coin flip

That’s why only way to do is wait until the very end, last few weeks, if appears only way. Shit happens, that’ll be fine.

I cannot imagine why anybody thinks that the current boorish display of cowardice and wishful thinking from pundits etc is somehow going to translate into a steady resolve to do daring and unprecedented things.

Makes me irrationally angry. You might as well argue that the Dallas Mavericks should have been replaced in the Finals. There's about as much logic to it.

The thing about replacing Biden is, with who? Even the people who've been repeating this for the last year haven't been able to even produce one viable alternative candidate Replacing an incumbent president with [stand in] is an efficient way to lose

The vice president. Voters already showed that's who they would want to replace Biden with if he's incapacitated.

every plausible replacement polls better than biden and has since roughly October 7th (just picking a date totally at random).

Significant chance the nominee won't be in good enough condition to make a nominating speech at the convention. What are they going to do? Use a hologram? Test some AI?

There’s really no evidence of that.

Last night is evidence of that.

Probably right, but maybe staring at certain defeat will focus minds and bend principles? Would they really prefer to lose than violate some party bylaw?

I mean what the fuck do I know obviously, but this has very “this feels unprecedented” energy. To which I have no idea how to react.

It's how it always is. Polls for a perfect unnamed opposition do well, but as soon as you've got an actual body to compare with, it's "women don't seem as strong" and "we can't have a Latino on border policy" and "does a 50-year-old have enough experience?"

there was never a realistic path to someone *these* pundits would accept as a replacement Dem anyways most of these pundits want a President to the right of Biden that isn't submerged in trumpism, but that era is over for now

This is key for me - the time was a year ago At this point, these two candidates feel like surrogate stand ins for ideology Changing serves no purpose under those conditions & would signal worse within the machine running these things

It's not like dude magically lost his marbles the day before the debate... He's had his very bad days like this for a while... I think he hit strong with the SOTU and too many of his supporters dismissed any video of him doddering about as rightwing propaganda... which it is... but it also happens.

This is still about him not giving them a sit down interview.

Biden also said he was going to be a one term president… maybe they should have kept that promise

Sounds like the move then is to kick our feet up and just hope for the best

It’s still before Labor Day so maybe voters will forget, but if the media message is “Biden is a feeble old man” until E day…

We need an empathetic human to address the social shortfalls of modern corporate/consumer capitalism that is also will to be a ruthless asshole in order to fight the system. That personality type does not run for public office in general, and specifically not for the Presidency.

This.

Well we’re about to find out what the unrealistic way to do it is

Polls basically even. If we could trust the polls and Biden was down by 5, this still wouldn’t happen. If we could trust the polls and Biden was down by 20, this would be a real possibility. We’re so far away from that universe

we're not

We have to forensically study the big brains of Dem elites to learn where their propensity for impulse control and strategic thinking come from

Fucking told you so.

One realistic thing the campaign could do starting today is get Kamala Harris in front of a lot more cameras. If the biggest concern is the age & health of the President, you reassure voters with a strong Vice-President.

Can I just mention that I don't think any of these people pulled an all nighter to write those columns. Which means they were written before the debate. Which implies to me their minds were made ahead of time. (I could be wrong I'm not a journalist)

The media has its message. Echo chamber engaged at volume 11.

Fwiw, I tried to talk about it back then. VERY few would have any of it and my own motivations were questioned by many. If you brought it up you were accused to trying to help Trump or being a Bernie Bro or whatever.

David Axelrod warns since October to "change the horse" Biden disastrous debate, so 'JOEVER' Biden lost: Tom Friedman Ezra Klein Ross Douthat entire MSNBC + CNN pundit Nicholas Kristof Jeff Tiedrich as of 4am DC List name (9am) maybe longer prada.substack.com/p/dem-operat...

Dem Operatives: [Best Hope] 'JOEVER' Biden Died Naturally, Immediately, Better, to 'Change the Horse'prada.substack.com The happiest person after [rusty, senile] Biden’s debate performance [because too old] maybe David Axelrod. ‘JOEVER’ Joe Biden lost even Jeff Tiedrich, Thomas Loren Friedman, and Nicholas ‘Nick’ Donab...

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