I'm not saying that I don't wish Biden was polling better. But just giving into doomerism this far out from an election given the actual facts of the situation seems so fucking stupid to me, and there are high level democrats openly doing it! What are you fucking doing???
I'm beginning to see why the blue wave didn't materialize in CA and NY in 2022. Democratic machine politicians have absolutely cooked their brains rubbing elbows with rich idiots constantly. Hand the keys over to a coalition of swing state leaders.
There are like a dozen, almost interchangeable, guys who have managed to go on that same arc in the past month.
And now they're all sullen that no one wants to listen to them.
the thing about beutler (and the pod saves guys, and plenty other interchangeable brocasters and bruhstackers besides) is that not everyone’s cut out to be their own boss, some — maybe most! — people are more effective and more productive being told what to do and when to do it
fundamentally the anti-biden dems need to dig their heads out of their asses, recognize that they lost, and move the fuck on with winning this goddamn election
of course they struggle to do this because they put their pride higher than saving the fucking country, so
I am but a random internet person, but I feel like this is a conversation for the party to have had intensively and privately two weeks ago, resolved by now, and to definitely, definitely not have in front of donors
This is largely tongue in cheek but my mental heath has been much better since I decided I didn’t have to worry about data that paints an inscrutable picture of the situation. Ask me again in September.
I'm beginning to see why the blue wave didn't materialize in CA and NY in 2022. Democratic machine politicians have absolutely cooked their brains rubbing elbows with rich idiots constantly. Hand the keys over to a coalition of swing state leaders.
The reason they keep quoting panicked donors in the "Biden is DOOOOMED" story is that the donors are all extremely online and watch cable news etc and so its just a feedback loop. You make a new story in the NYT out of the donors repeating shit they read in the NYT
Ten years ago I went on a reading spree of the blog posts of the "neoreactionaries," which wordcount wise meant mostly Curtis Yarvin. Back then I thought they were nobodies and I just wanted to stop my libertarian friends from taking them at all seriously. Now a fan of them is on the GOP ticket.
there are a lot of people i like and respect and who are smarter than me who think we are going to lose, and i think they are wrong, and i think they are wrong because they don’t believe in you and i and everyone we know and they think they know how it will go. do not comply in advance.
Like I can imagine a guy who likes Ruben Gallego and doesn't like Biden, I can't imagine a guy who likes Ruben Gallego, doesn't like Biden *and* doesn't like any of the non-Biden Dems who might run so much that he says he wants Trump. But that's like 15% of Arizona according to NYT/Siena?
As I understand it, argument is that the NYT has played an outsized role in mainstreaming anti-trans policy and people of good conscience shouldn’t work for it.
Felt to me like picking a target that might bleed instead of the many that won’t (GOP legislators who were doing this anyway).
Still pretty confused why people have such an obsession with bashing the times specifically. It hits, it misses, it has bad writers, it has good writers. Who cares. He’ll be missed on here!
Polls with Biden down 4 in PA or whatever consistently show him being weak with all of the exact demographics you would expect him to ultimately win, with loads of undecideds. It's not unreasonable to think those people are going to come home.
He was fine at the NATO press conference and has had several good rallies. It's clearly situationally dependent.
I'm not saying it's not a problem or a weakness. It's just that all candidates have weaknesses and I think people are considerably overrating the importance of this
I said stuff to this effect when Yglesias got ran off the platform but you can’t seriously have a long term functional social media site where the right edge of acceptable discourse is to the left of Yglesias or NYT.
For one thing, you kill your ability to move people to the left.
Mostly agree except on reflection I feel like the three-day combo of the shooting, the Cannon decision, and the Vance pick was a powerful reminder of how miserable and exhausting it was to live with one goddamn thing after another when this guy had the spotlight for four straight years
I think Trump getting shot and being photographed with a defiant fist in the air, bloodied and unbowed, will actually lead to zero changed votes. He might be the only person in the universe that would be true of.
the core problems with Biden Must Go are:
1) there is no plausible mechanism to make it happen except by persuading Biden himself that his exit is necessary
2) the polling arguments to persuade Biden are weak
3) the medical arguments to persuade Biden are not visible but apparently weak also
Again. Qualitatively: Biden has beat Trump in a POTUS contest before, Biden is the incumbent, there's a big 'ol pile of positive economic indicators suggesting that people are optimistic about their household even if they aread about prices.
There are an awful lot of people who want to claim the political left as a way to engage in really stupid anti-social behavior, and it's your job as someone on the left to not take them seriously because doing so will harm your credibility
We have to say this because Biden/Harris can't. They can't say "the guy who just got shot was closely connected to a pedophile ring", that's not appropriate from the president (we've decided). But we can say "Donald Trump promoted the DA who let Epstein off the hook", and we should
I will die on the hill of "Fahrenheit is infinitely better than Celsius." 0 is "so cold that below that doesn't really matter" and 100 is "so hot that above that doesn't really matter" and it's a percentage scale between the two. Makes perfect sense.
Biden has done 3 live tv appearences related to the shooting since where he calls for unity. Trump has disappeared and done nothing. The resulting press coverage is covering an imaginary version of Trump as if he had said unity stuff. Like literally they are making up a fake guy to praise.
The purpose is not just to articulate government policy, but to encourage private action.
This is not going to work out well for anyone. Including me, since the first time a shitbird in a MAGA hat demands one of my kids prove their citizenship I’m probably gonna wind up in jail.
The number of people Trump says he'll deport keeps going up. It's now 20 million, 50% higher than the largest estimates of the undocumented population. It's clear sign that distinguishing legal from illegal won't be a priority. They're just going to round up people they don't want to be here.
Or sometimes it's just a legit misunderstanding, someone passing on a rumor they heard, etc etc. The point is that you really can't trust any of it because editorial standards have become so low that the anonymous source could easily just be some prominent Dem's cousin's friend's wife's nail tech.
