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The Brits know how to do an election night. We can't do it the same way, because we have a zillion different federal, state, & local offices up for grabs on the same day, plus ballot initiatives & referenda. But one night with elections to a single legislative house is so pure, it's fun.
we're only just getting started, time for the real coffee pot
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UK politics can be grim, but election night there with constituencies being largely ungerrymandered, losers standing next to winners of podiums, and the "election season is 6 weeks, not 2 years" default is incredibly wholesome
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also "if/when you lose, there's no lame duck season, the next guy arrives tomorrow at 10am" is a big UK W vs the US system, we should totes get rid of that
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just without the part where you ask the king for his permission to form a government
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Yeah it's not my favorite bit. Tho at least it's all just a weird cosplay and everyone understands very clearly that it's not real
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Tbf we also have our "ask electors to pick" and "ask congress to count" cosplay, which tbqh we should really move past, because while it's all fun and games as weird cosplay, we've found out to our detriment what happens when folks refuse to dress up and act it out
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The Tories could still win if King Charles has courage.
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tomorrow we get my favorite constitutional oddity which is that there's a ~ 1 hour period in which all UK executive authority formally vests in the King
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I'm still bullish on the US vs the UK long term, but as an aside, I'll gladly take "we pretend to give this guy total authority but if he tries to use it we'll chop HM Royal Head off again" over "the president is immune from all the crimes, as long as he's abusing his official power during them."
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I'm incredibly bullish on America's future. I get it's a bit hard to see these days--the death throes of unpopular authoritarianism is pretty scary and there are real problems in the immediate term--but I definitely think America's best days are still very much ahead.
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Today (or even better, yesterday) a good day to remember what a bunch of normie bros and led by one eccentric liberal arts professor can do to a legion of reactionary nutjobs.
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Believe he means Joshua Chamberlain and the 20th Maine at Gettysburg? Unless I’m way off
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Should be better known as an American hero. The left needs to embrace our forebears
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He got a decent beer out of it
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As I said earlier, we have to put in the hard work and perseverance to get through this election to keep Trump out of the White House. The long term trends are very positive and there’s not much left of the true GOP. Once MAGA is defeated, that’s a totally splintered party.
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The immediate term is pretty scary. But the future is bright, if we collectively can just reach our way to the end of this admittedly dark tunnel.
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I’m less concerned about the polls and the electorate than I am about Democratic leadership having their strategic plan in place to respond to all potential outcomes MAGA may create. I’m curious if MAGA already has plan in place for taking WH without winning the election.
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It will be a lot harder this time because the Dems have the Executive branch and the VP counts the electoral votes. There’s no one in place to swap in alternate electors. And people are going to think long and hard before signing up to be an elector and ending up in jail. I hope.
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Here’s my suspicion. They are setting up Georgia and probably other GOP dominated states to challenge states and not send electors at all until they finish legal stuff, which will go beyond Jan 6. Thus, no candidate will have 270 electoral votes, throwing election to House and GOP.
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Possible does not mean probable. I think the odds are slim to none that any steal would actually work, especially if Trump tries again. And this time, remember, he’s just a private citizen calling the governor of Georgia. He has no real power.
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We already know who the military will side with if they try to steal the election this time (although it's entirely possible Trump will legitimately win).
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I’m pretty sure the military is going to side with the Constitution, like they are supposed to, and prevent the steal. But like I said, Pence isn’t counting the electors this time and most of the crazy Secretary of State candidates lost in the swing states in 2022. Trump will have to WIN to win.😉
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[looks into end of tunnel] [Sees generative AI Tom Cruise chatbot]
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Oh please that's not at the end of the tunnel that's already here.
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I will vote 🔵 no matter who. However, #Biden has little to no upside unless he uses his new #officialact powers - 😳😤which he clearly states he won't. Yes, change at this late date is risky, but so is "staying the course", 1 term loser GHW Bush's bland, ineffective strategy.
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No offense to that person. I am more than sure they are well-meaning and reasonable. Your hard work doesn't mean shit when the SCOTUS can cut off your legs. Presidential immunity has to be dealt with RIGHT FUCKING NOW. SCOTUS will make Trump president. Run under that assumption. That's the priority
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Agree on voting blue no matter what. Biden has great record of accomplishments, “safe” for non-MAGA GOP, but old and not good communicator. I’ve been increasingly impressed with Harris who might bring more women, black and young voters but not great candidate, either.
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Agree. Harris has an upside but Biden does not unless he proves he can act decisively using his new #officialacts powers - which he has expressly refused to do. This ABC poll from July 2, 2024 shows Harris and Biden virtually tied:
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I want to trust polls like I used to but it’s a little tougher in this age of disinformation. And that 35-38% total is not statistically valid and meaningful (that ol’ “stats lie” thing). Finally, I do think Biden has an upside, though dismissing powers out of hand not my choice.
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The polling in 2020 was right on the money on Election Day (see below) predicting a slim Biden victory. 2016 polling was awful yet that is the polling people like to refer to when they say they don't trust polling. My take is that 2024 polling is more like 2020: campaign." ig.ft.com/us-election-...
Biden vs Trump: 2020 US presidential election poll trackerig.ft.com State-by-state polling data and interactive electoral college calculator from the 2020 presidential election
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40 years of Dem acquiescence has got us here. That needs to end
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If it’s one thing sixty years of Dem acquiescence has taught me, it’s that we are capable of acquiescing for ever-longer periods of time. We pick the perfect times to give up the White House to narcissistic criminals like Nixon, Reagan, the Bushes, and Trump. I hope this isn’t one of those times.
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Please help me see how because I am a very worried mom rn.
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I am too but I look at it practically: does my worry improve the situation? No. But my determination not to hand over my country to fascists empowers me.
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I think (hope) people have caught on to SCOTUS getting over their skis with obviously incorrect and wildly unpopular rulings, and they will demand action. And unlike in years past, the Democratic leadership have finally seen what's been going on and will actually listen and do something about it.
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Damn, I'm glad someone is. Hope y'all are right about this.
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We either row together or abandon ship and drown together. Every pull of the oar is for someone who will suffer more than you will under Donald 2.0. The LGTBQ community (especially trans folks). The black and brown folks. Immigrants. Kids. Muslims. Jews. Non-Christians. Elderly and disabled.
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And every single woman/wife/sister/child/grandchild of child baring age is at risk. Every. Single. One!
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Only way there is through all this
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From whence comes this optimism? #uspol
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Because a lot of the problems we are facing is /because/ this is authoritarianism's last chance. They wouldn't need to rig the vote if what they offered was popular
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It’s a lot more popular than I’d like to think in times of relative wealth and prosperity.
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Maybe as some others have said, as Trump comes into focus and normies start watching the campaign Trump’ll lose that honestly now it’s almost 20% of support that would make him vulnerable (or the 3rd party move to Biden). But this is a hope.
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Totally. But they are the minority, and everyone needs to not lose sight of that. Folks regularly talk of them as the "real Americans", but folks need to remember it is ours too, we outnumber them, and the future is ours for the taking.
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My worry is surviving to get to the light at the end of the tunnel. If the Judiciary is compromised, what's the check on the Executive?
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The check is nonviolent--and eventually violent--popular resistance. Same as it was 248 years ago.
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My worry there is unlike 1776, everything is so hyper-militarised that unless the military joins the resistance, all those billions of dollars thrown into the military-industrial complex will be used to crush the people. How can they effectively resist?
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Let's remember that the military has already literally *mutinied* against Trump once (on Jan 6, 2021, illegally taking orders from VP Mike Pence instead of the actual CnC).
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The military is composed of people too. If violence breaks out in the name of authoritarianism not every soldier will join in enthusiastically.