executive editor, barbell quarterly: the trump campaign has hired Charlie Kirk's companies, on a for-profit basis, to run their GOTV efforts. turning point's GOTV efforts have lost all three of the state elections they worked on previously, and they've never worked a national one

i don't know, man, i'm just some humble idiot shitposter, but i do not think that the democratic party trying to usurp the sitting president from the nomination and then also throwing the first black vice-president under the bus will be very popular with the democratic party's voter base

Lots of Whistling Past the Graveyard here. Do any of you believe Biden has any shot after last night?

yes, gar, i think he's got about the same chances he did before last night, and the immediate polling backs me up, but if you want to play amateur politics knower, i'm happy to explain to you in unpleasant detail why i think you don't know what you're talking about

Go on…..

trump faces sentencing in less than two weeks, and while he may not get jail time, he might get home confinement — whatever it is, he's extremely unlikely to get *nothing* on more than three dozen felony counts, and every time "convicted felon" comes up, his support drops with independents

the GOP at both the national and state levels are an organizational and operational shitshow, neither of them are prepared to mount a voter mobilization effort in any state, let alone any competitive state, and the trumps will still have substantial legal expenses to divert donations to

debates almost *never* move the needle on support, and they particularly don't move the needle if no one's watching them (as was the case last night) but attack clips are extremely effective, and the biden campaign got even more of those than they'll be able to use last night out of trump

discounted airtime in all of the competitive states has already been prepaid by the biden campaign, which means trump's campaign will have to spend *significantly* more on commercials than biden is spending, which drains funds that should be spent on GOTV ops, which, again, they don't have

polling has — according to every pollster who has been asked — been exceptionally difficult this year, and has produced a lot of incoherent and unlikely results that should be treated with far more caution than anyone is actually treating them. it doesn't mean they're wrong, but they're not gospel.

trump also clearly believes his own bullshit, as we saw with the attacks on hunter biden and trump's flagrantly racist chest beating about everything he's done for the black community, which means his campaign is operating on bad instincts and bad information

so, like, is that enough, gar, or do you want me to go on?

I don't want to take up your time, but this is cheering me up quite a bit, so do as much of this as you like!

the trump campaign has hired Charlie Kirk's companies, on a for-profit basis, to run their GOTV efforts. turning point's GOTV efforts have lost all three of the state elections they worked on previously, and they've never worked a national one

I generally think GOTV efforts are overblown in the modern election environment but they can swing small numbers of votes and in a very close election, which this one will almost certainly be, that may well matter

it also serves the larger project, which is that the trump campaign will be paying through the nose for *nothing* because they have no volunteers

yeah the “Trump campaign takes in massive amounts of cash after conviction” stories didn’t phase me much because he is going to either just steal all of that for himself or spend it in the stupidest way possible

Going long on Iraqi dinars as we speak.

As fundamentally flawed as the DNC is, they're looking at the big picture of down ballot, where the RNC head Laura Trump has made it clear every dollar goes to Trump. When multiple state GOP are experiencing dire financial concerns, it is a bold choice to further defend those ground organizations.

I'm going to go out on a limb and hope you are open to a tiny bit of friendly pedantry. It's "faze"

That ship has sailed. You should find a different peeve to... hone in on (runs away)

Believe me, I am champing at the bit

The lawyers he’s funneling campaign cash to for defense in multiple criminal trials strongly resent being called “nothing.” 😂

This is a common misconception. As long as the checks clear, they're fine with being called anything

they matter a whole lot more if you’re telling your voters not to mail in their ballots

or if your base is made up of irregular voters who only seem to show up for you personally

well, on the bright side for trump, they bought all their airtime early and didn’t spend all that early money on trump’s lawyers

Get Out The Vote operations are aimed at reminding the party's own voters that an election is coming up, where their polling location is, to make sure their registration is up to date, and to register new voters. Not to knock on doors of people who will shoot us So yeah, they're pretty important

Less overblown, and more a Red Queens race. Go as fast as you can just to stay in the same place because both parties do a competent job. But if one party doesn’t?? 🤷‍♂️

Romney lost to Obama because he was crap. But the story of his EPIC FAIL GOTV is an awesome reminder that NOT having your shit together when it comes to GOTV is going to cost you tens of thousands of vote per state. www.pbs.org/newshour/pol...

Beached Orca Project Couldn't Save the Romney Campaignwww.pbs.org Voters in Arapahoe County, Colo., line up on Election Day. According to reports, the Romney campaign's massive get-out-the-vote effort known as "Project Orca" failed to reach its potential. Photo by C...

GOTV can depend on the scale of the election and the state of interest, but could be the difference in, say, AZ GA NC, which is the difference between a comfortable Biden win and a three month anxiety attack.

Even eric son of Eric was like "guys I think Kirk might be grifting us." And he's an idiot.

I did not know this but I do know about Charlie Kirk and this is fantastic news

multiple swing state republican parties, including Michigan and Minnesota, are bankrupt and completely destroyed by blood feuds

You really love to see it.

Yeah, this one I was aware of and it's nice to be reminded. Couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch

The rat fucking always gets them in the end.

that gif always creeps me out a little but I'll allow it.

THIS IS REALLY FUNNY AND ALSO OF COURSE HOW THIS WOULD END

Wait... they did what now? They'd have been better off hiring McKinsey to make a slide deck about GOTV

I cackled. A+ skeeting, Sir.

Look, there's no sugar-coating it, the Biden campaign's gotta accept that with this news, it's clear they're gonna lose the tiny-face vote.

Jesus Christ I didn’t know this.

www.cnn.com/2024/06/15/p...

Donald Trump’s ground game strategy: Rely on help from outside organizations like Turning Point | CNN Politicswww.cnn.com Donald Trump’s campaign is taking a vastly different approach to 2024 compared to 2020, with plans for fewer staff and expenses, including what they view as superfluous brick and mortar offices. Inste...

It doesn’t seem like they’ve taken into account Facebook dropping all news sites. It’s definitely not a messaging war

lol

So whatever donor cash doesn't get eaten by legal fees is going to an outside organization run by an incompetent grifter, which will then be dispersed to a bunch of independent contractors with little oversight and a general mandate to "get voters to the polls"... Seems bad

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