GOLIKEHELLMACHINE: i’m just asking you to take a moment to consider this from biden’s perspective: most of the fundamentals still look good for him. he’s beaten trump once. swapping the nominee this late has never worked, and there is *every* reason to believe republicans in every contested state would contest it

i’m just asking you to take a moment to consider this from biden’s perspective: most of the fundamentals still look good for him. he’s beaten trump once. swapping the nominee this late has never worked, and there is *every* reason to believe republicans in every contested state would contest it

anyone who thinks harris is gonna get an easy walk from the nation’s newspapers and editorial boards if she were to become the nominee is absolutely lying to themselves

it’s just incredibly frustrating that no one’s even pretending to look at this from a whole picture standpoint, it is not a small thing, and it is likely, from an odds standpoint based on precedent, to fail.

It's all moment to moment panic, led largely by clueless pundits.

Feels like they're all grabbing at the latest trendy take, like a giant company flailing to do something AI-related

Sometimes the benefit of being older is knowing that we've been here before. I'm not saying it's smooth sailing but 4 months is a lifetime in politics and polling has become increasingly unreliable.

Yeah, it feels like there's very little separating this from the "rawdogging flights" article in terms of actual motivation.

It’s a pure knee jerk reaction by the pundits.

I think it's got to be Biden period. If for example he decided to drop out, all these Newsom, Whitmer etc fantasies are dead. Especially because experts say only Harris would have access to the current campaign funds. But in fantasy league, none of this apparently matters.

People out here trying to code like they're Elon Musk or something. Fuck building a cybertruck on the fly.

Now picturing Fantasy Democratic National Convention where Harris not only takes all the delegates camping to have s'mores made with a solar oven, on the way back she brings them all out on Lake Michigan to show off boat mode. At least, that was the "plan" ... it doesn't go well.

panel gaps?

It's presidents, right? Stairs. Pretzels. Stairs. Rabbits. Sushi. Stairs.

Plus, if they think Biden is at death’s door and prefer Harris, they should vote for Biden. The end result would be the same, yea? President Harris.

Have they all forgotten that the deadline to get on the November ballot has already passed in several states? The Ohio lege did its level best to keep Biden off the ballot. Do they really think those jerks in Columbus would agree to a replacement at this late date?

The Ohio deadline is August 7. It's before the convention, but god help us all if the question of who the Democratic presidential nominee is isn't fully settled by then.

Background, for anyone who may be wondering WTF we're talking about

Democrats unveil plan to get Biden on Ohio general election ballotwww.bbc.com A standoff with Republicans in Ohio threatened to keep the US president off November's ballot in the state.

This has been my argument the entire campaign. It remains true. When you look at the big picture, Biden is the safest option to beat Trump based on the currently available data. I don’t like it, but it’s true.

im also frustrated that biden won the primary and our votes should count more than op-eds

the only guy in my lifetime not to get reelected is the guy we're trying to beat right now. the last thing we need to do is say, hey, we aren't confident in the guy we picked last time. telling us to make a change means pundits think biden is in a relatively strong spot, and that they hate that.

Shoot, they aren’t even looking at it from one consistent single viewpoint. Every time I see someone argue for him dropping out, it’s just “his polls are awful, and we gotta believe them 100%, but also the polls that show everyone else doing similarly don’t exist or are wrong”

We should hear just as much about how any transcript of a Trump speech or debate answer reads like word salad that got backed over by a truck. Biden’s performance is receiving legitimate attention, but the press is the dog chasing the car, and the car’s driven by a bunch of Limbaugh wannabes.

everyone's too emotional

it really is disheartening that Our Political Media is this craven and dumb

if, after having considered all of this, you still come to that conclusion, well, at least you have an informed opinion, but it’s a one-time thing, we do not get to load a previous save if it goes badly

Just to add, Trump’s whole political persona is built on being a successful bully. Biden dropping out would strengthen that persona immeasurably. And it’s not like much of the mainstream media would try to counter that.

fait accompli It's self-defeating, self-fulfilling. Hail Caesar!

If we swap now, absent sudden health event like aneurism, stroke, etc, the message will be that Dems lied to everyone about Biden’s health and that the public shouldn’t trust them.

I think Harris would make a fine candidate and president, but I just can't get past feeling like doing a swap at this point in the campaign is the equivalent of posting a flashing neon sign to disengaged voters that says "WE'RE LOSING LOSERS WHO CAN'T CREDIBLY GOVERN"!

And Biden is *manifestly* not in serious decline!

x.comx.com

with any and all signal changes it's going to be noise. Especially because we're ignorant, uncoordinated, and free... It's the dumbest thing to do. Would you shoot yourself in the foot before climbing a mountain? Fuck, would you do it before sitting down to watch a movie?

And not for nothing the panicky calls to drop out are not taking any post-debate polling (early as it is) into account! He dropped a pt or two so is still statistically dead heat in one- which is where he’s averaged and not unusual for an incumbent 1st debate. The voters at large don’t seem to care

You could *try* to argue that the GOPs in the various contested states (AZ WI MI PA) are in various levels of disarray and aren't equipped for that fight, but it still means your committing resources to that fight that could be spent on advertisements calling Trump an asshole

While I don't think that swapping makes any sense, if it happens before the convention, how could it be contested? If the delegates all voted for Harris, what grounds would they have?

the last year has maybe overconvinced me that we should take absolutely nothing for granted if it gets to the courts

This is true and all but since we don’t actually vote for the candidates we vote for a slate of electors then they wouldn’t have much pretense to work with. Biden could die and we could still vote for Biden and hai electors would just pick Kamala and whoever she picks as VP.

Honestly, Biden winning posthumously against Trump would be the funniest possible thing that could happen in this election short of that happening and then Trump dying the day after the election.

I mean fair, but if they're going to do that, they could also remove Biden.

Oh with the exception of Ohio of course. That is the one state where we'd be screwed.

I am worried the SC will toss out valid Biden votes

I'm not going to pre-worry about something like that. If they want to throw the election, they probably would have in 2020.

the premeditated coordination to fraudulently flip the election on every sector of the right this time makes me think it might turn out differently, and I worry Dems won’t be prepared and won’t fight back hard enough

where's that WFAN skeet again, it was excellent

WFAN?

Ahhh here it is bsky.app/profile/toms...

The wise thinkers of the Times opinion department are handling this like WFAN callers after the Mets bullpen blows two out of three www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/o...

Opinion | To Serve His Country, President Biden Should Leave the Racewww.nytimes.com The president’s inadequate performance in the debate made it clear he is not the man he was four years ago.

oh, gotcha, yes, that was good

Fortunately the contestation part is more annoyance than a real problem, but yes, agree otherwise

I think they'd struggle to contest it if Harris were the replacement, but then again we're back to the open convention fantasists' desire to leapfrog Harris as well.

The pundit class smells blood in the water and want drama.

Closest comparison that comes to mind is NJ Dems tapping Lautenberg as an 11th-hour replacement for Sen. Torricelli in 2002, but all the details of that election were different.

Can you explain more about what you mean by "most of the fundamentals"? I'm not sure that we're thinking of the same ones.

What would be the grounds for contesting Harris's nomination by her party, assuming she's the choice of her party's delegates at her party's convention?

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