Too Big to Fail: She voted for Biden in 2020. She'd always voted Democratic, but abortion rights are very important to her, and when Biden got rid of Roe v. Wade he was betraying everybody who'd fought so hard for abortion rights, so she'd be voting for Trump because he protected abortion while he was President.

Deleted.

If I didn’t have polls I’d be betting my entire life savings on Biden winning. The question I very nervously keep asking myself is what are the *specific* problems with polls that produce exceedingly favorable results for Trump. Beyond “polls not good anymore”.

I've heard way too many young-ish people talk about how they're voting for Trump because Trump sent them a check with his signature on it and Biden never did anything for them to think the polls are wrong.

About 2/3 of the electorate:

I listened to an interview with a focus group where a woman from Pennsylvania said she was voting for Trump because Biden got rid of Roe v. Wade. Most voters are incredibly dumb.

And the sad thing, it's hard to tell from that whether she's a Republican or the Online Left.

She voted for Biden in 2020. She'd always voted Democratic, but abortion rights are very important to her, and when Biden got rid of Roe v. Wade he was betraying everybody who'd fought so hard for abortion rights, so she'd be voting for Trump because he protected abortion while he was President.

I believe she thought that because Presidents appoint the Supreme Court Justices, that every new President appoints all new Supreme Court Justices, so all of the Justices who voted for Dobbs were Biden appointees? Like, I'm sure her thought process didn't go that deep, but that was the gist.

90% of the complaints about Biden (and Obama before him) from the left amount to "the President is a wizard who can fix any problem immediately and clearly chose not to out of sheer malice, why would he do that?"

“if trump can make things worse (seemingly) by himself why can’t biden make things better”

In both cases they underestimate the power of the opposition to block. The US has 4-5 veto points; many other countries have 2-3.

"If Obama can enact DACA which he wasn't certain was constitutional, why can't Biden do something similar to restore abortion rights?"

They want an absolutist leftist king in all but name but don't have the intellectual rigor to figure that out themselves.

We are a culture steeped in authoritarianism. Even liberals and leftists look at Biden and expect him to be a god-emperor with power and influence he simply does not have. The difference is the right sees authoritarianism as aspirational and the left sees it with nihilistic despair.

Yes!

Yeah, those are median voters alright. The good news is that they're often pretty persuadable

it would be nice if the reporters would tell them they're wrong more often

Median Voter Brain is real, and terrifying

Did anyone in the focus group push back on her?

This sounds so ridiculous you almost have to wonder if it's a troll. Hard to imagine someone who is a frequent Democratic voter who claims to care about abortion being this uninofmred.

No people are in fact that ignorant

I think people are that ignorant but have a hard time thinking that someone can be that ignorant *while also* claiming to be a Democrat who cares strongly about abortion rights. Caring about something typically implies at least a baseline level of knowledge about it.

This was a focus group specifically seeking out HRC / Biden voters who were considering voting for Trump in 2024, to see why. It turned out that a bunch of them just had absolutely no idea how anything works.

"Caring about something typically implies at least a baseline level of knowledge about it." ahhhh....hmmmm, I dunno man...

“Caring about something typically implies at least a baseline level of knowledge about it.” Boy HOWDY, do I wish that was the case.

Back in 2000, I talked to a girl who was adamantly in favor of gay rights because her twin brother was gay, and it was her sole justification for voting for George Bush. She would not be persuaded that he was worse on the issue than Gore.

Dunning-Kruger strikes again!

Oh, but they are.

OK, I meant to have a comma there, so it should be "No, people are in fact that ignorant!"

Never, ever, ever underestimate the American public's ability to be uninformed.

No, Aubrey. It's...we're...a dumb emotional species who have to find out the hard way through trial and error and intergenerational turning of wheels of ignorance.

“A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it.” — Agent Kay, Men in Black

If this is in fact an actual sentiment, I’m much more inclined to believe the polls. Unbelievable

I’m less inclined because we’ve seen actual elections since Dobbs and it’s pretty clear which party voters hold most accountable for repealing Roe. But there are always ignorant people out there.

Yeah, that does appear to be true at least with abortion. I’m just struggling to understand how after the last 8 years, we still have polls showing this man ahead. Blatantly misguided statements like hers would explain a lot, but recent elections indicate she’s an anomaly.

When I read stuff like this I just assume they’re mad at Biden about something else but don’t feel comfortable saying it

No; the goal wasn't pursuasion, just to find out where voters' heads are, so the moderator immediately moved on. But in that particular focus group, EVERYBODY had a complete misunderstanding of courts' role in politics. Multiple people said Congress voted to cancel student debt but Biden vetoed it.

I feel like we need focus groups not to gage public opinion, but just to gently correct people a few at a time.

Very much a "every word you just said was wrong" moment.

Maybe instead of giving them each $50 for participating, each of those fucking morons should have been disenfranchised instead. That or shoved down a well, I’m ambivalent as to which.

Highly recommended pod and video: The Focus Group. Cry or laugh ... or both. From June 1.

It's Just About Feelings, Man (with Jonathan V. Last)www.thebulwark.com Watch now | We have five months to go until Election Day, and nobody's happy. So we're bringing you some catharsis. Jonathan V. Last joins Sarah to let out a primal scream and preview the home stretch...

If it's the one I heard on NPR, she did her push back. Someone explained reality to her and you could almost hear her brain sputter out.

Do you remember what show this was ? I'd love to listen.

Pretty sure it was on morning edition. It was the kind of thing that made me desperately want to go back to bed and pull the covers over my head.

Ohhhh, I started listening and turned it off so I didn't start a 3 day drunken bender! Maybe I'll go back and listen again.

I'll give her this: her theory of government (we vote for someone and for the next four years they get to be in charge) is better than the founders' (checks and balances and multiple levels of government and elections every year and the voters will simply keep track of who's responsible for what)

That's sad. But a lot of people are post-literate & deeply ignorant.

Nah, they have a similarly bad understanding of how business works — The Boss dictates everything. Sure, some small businesses (and X) work that way. And people have no understanding of the sheer scale of US government institutions.

Whatever we get, we’re going to deserve it.

I think you're giving that woman too much credit. It's probably more due to association - Biden's in office right now so blame him. They think the president really does run the whole country. That's an easy way to be ignorant.

this is someone who gets news from a source that lies to her

You can trust her, they found her in a rural diner.

How stupid can you get.

Biden did what? When did he get appointed as a SCOTUS justice?

Painfully stupid.

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