Have you written about your political transformation away from that libertarianism somewhere? As an early 2000s Reason reader I have found the evolution of yours, Balko’s, Weigel’s and Sanchez’s politics really interesting when contrasted with a lot of other libertarians.
I agree that a final decision needs to be ASAP and that I will vote for whoever the Dem is. But I think it will be close no matter what, as frustrating and frankly inexplicable as that is.
Aside from Michelle Obama I haven’t seen much polling that suggests Harris or any other candidate would do much better than Biden as of now. “It shouldn’t be this close with Trump on the ballot” is true but I think Biden’s age is crowding out discussion of other reasons why this might be the case.
If the switch does get made I don’t think it will change the underlying dynamics of the race all that much and that will breed a whole other round of anxiety. I’m just not convinced Biden’s age is as salient as that 86% figure suggests in terms of voting preference.
I don’t see Harris’s weaknesses and potential countermoves being gamed out at all by supporters of a switch and I don’t see the fight on her behalf when she doesn’t poll as well as Trump either being any less dithering. Biden’s age can be swapped out for any other attack line against any candidate.
Anything can and will be turned into a scandal for any Dem candidate just like Biden’s age with the help of the press and anxious Dem insiders. Trump will say Kamala slept her way to the top with a much older man and will do it no matter how many Dem fingers wag at him saying it’s unfair.
The US seems transfixed in different ways by a shameless lying jerk and crook who is not even interesting in any way. Beating him this time around feels uncertain and difficult when it feels like it ought to be a slam dunk. I’m not sure why we can’t seem to locate his weakness right now.
Trump has been ahead nationally for months (within the margin of error) and is ahead in almost every swing state. That’s weird! Why isn’t that the other way around considering what we all know about Trump? I don’t think it is just that Biden is old.
Yeah and the polls are weird too. Still - the kitchen sink has been thrown at Trump, he has more scandals than any politician alive, and Biden is still trailing along with most other potential candidates. Is it the high prices? Some weird realignment? I dunno but his age crowds out those topics.
Yeah I am a little worried we are arguing about Biden’s age instead of something even more uncomfortable about what is making Trump so durable in the polls right now vs. almost any Democrat. It’s very obvious that Trump is a monster to us but that doesn’t seem to break through at large. What gives?
Making her the nominee will unleash it on a grand scale in a way low-info voters are sure to hear about it. Dems will have to fight back against RW talking points and it sure seems like they’ll just lean into their anxiety no matter who is the nominee.
Bill Clinton’s speech about topics like this at the 2012 speech was very helpful to Obama’s campaign, and Biden or any other candidate could use a few of those at this year’s convention
The tell for me is that Harris or any other candidate are going to have downsides that are seemingly hand waved away by the Biden Replacers - sure let’s talk about replacing Biden but nobody making that case acts like there is any potential downside!
Nobody is gaming out Kamala’s potential unfair attack lines at all - the right will have a big opportunity to define her and I am not sure I see all the Biden Replacers ready to fight back
I don’t think a new candidate changes this dynamic it just takes a different form. I wonder if any of this media freak out even penetrates the consciousness of the average voter all that much, especially compared to even a few years ago.
“Biden old”’ will be replaced by “Kamala the sidepiece” and everyone is going to act all indignant when it happens and gives her the same ceiling as Biden
I don’t think the age discourse matters. Swap in Kamala and I don’t think the polling changes, and she gets her own “but her emails” on whatever the right decides. Does she have more energy to fight back? That’s really her big potential selling point compared to the 10 to 4 Biden.
Shouldn’t Harris or any other candidate have gotten a youth dividend in this poll? Seems relevant that they do the same numbers as Biden. Suggests the problem isn’t really Biden being old.
the premeditated coordination to fraudulently flip the election on every sector of the right this time makes me think it might turn out differently, and I worry Dems won’t be prepared and won’t fight back hard enough
My fear is that Roberts will consider Trump’s attempts to steal the 2024 election within the bounds of this newly created immunity, if not outright legitimize them
I don’t think Trump supporters are thinking clearly about how much resistance there will be to them installing and enabling an authoritarian Trump. The protests are going to be constant and disruptive.
I don’t think this point is being discussed enough. Everyone says we can still vote in November but what if the courts throw out a losing result and nobody stops them?
