In other words, discounting the non-politician fantasy candidate who has no interest in running for office, Biden is actually the best option and Harris the second best, at least on this polling.
Yeah, and I can entertain arguments that numbers for non-Biden and Harris candidates isn’t totally comparable because of name recognition, but that’s another way of saying it’s an uphill climb.
Yeah, I don't think they're bad candidates, and I don't think they're incapable of making up the gap. But if you're pushing for as drastic a move as ousting the primary-winning incumbent and veep for someone entirely different, I want to hear certainties, not maybes.
People have been including her in polls for a decade for literally no reason, she is not a politician! At least include Matthew McConaughey and Christopher Walkin to demonstrate that we're including last minute drafts from the audience
Also, give Hillary Clinton her due, she didn't immediately try and go for the top job, she ran for and served a full Senate term to establish her credentials.
I was hoping it was. :) In which case my sarcasm isn't directed at you, but at the people who might as well think it's serious, and think it's a good idea.
I know this isn’t the vibe here, but I watched the debate with my 2x Trump voting septuagenarian mother. She said Trump kept changing the subject and in her opinion, Biden won. She said she plans to vote independent this year. If my Texan mother can turn her back on Trump, there’s hope.
I keep telling myself (and my offline pals) that it's the first week of JULY, things have not gotten off the ground quite yet, etc. at the same time, it always helps me to hear someone else say these things--so thank you for always lending a little sanity to the rest of us.
At this point I’m trying to reassure myself as much as anyone else amid the collective freak out we’ve seen over the last few days, but I figure doing it publicly could help some others in the same boat.
Also? This election will be decided by a small number of swing voters. These are not the people reading The NY Times headlines. They are the soybean farmer in WI. This will be an election of issues, with large numbers of voters in both parties holding their nose and voting for an old white man.
The main problem is that Biden is not going to get any less old between now and then.
But on the flipside, Trump could easily choke on a hamberder and die. Either one of them could stroke out at any moment.
There is a difference between a fact (Biden is old, Biden had a bad debate) and a narrative around a fact (Biden is senile, doesn't know what's going on, voters can't trust his judgment, blah blah blah). A narrative can always be changed.
No, this is fundamentally incorrect (not just about Biden, but about everything). People see things and then spin them according to what they want to see and believe. "People have eyeballs and earholes" would have prevented Donald Trump from being famous, let alone the President.
Man Idk how every single poll from the same date looks so goddamn different. It's so stupid and anyone that thinks polling isn't broken beyond repair is lying
I’m actually not 100% opposed to the idea but is somehow people post a candidate change into reality I don’t think that actually bodes well for our politics because they’re one bad Cygnal/Data For Progress poll from a newer worse psychosis.
Right after that debate? I'm not surprised that the guy with a little name recognition gets a bump. I don't see it lasting, but the gut reaction of "not these guys" makes certain sense.
TIPP is supposed to be one of the better rated ones, yes, for however much we should value that. They're certainly not some little shit ass discount R-aligned pollster.
Upper-mid-ranked by 538, 115th out of 277. Bear in mind this understates how good the ranked pollsters are, because there are a lot that they just consider total junk and refuse to rank at all.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-rat...
Also, the majority of electoral results of the past few years have been completely different from the polls.
As in those results have been Democrats kicking the s#@t out of the GOP in numbers far greater than the polls indicated.
I mean...did we forget 2022?
