look i am not an elections expert but i will just say that it’s striking how few of the arguments for keeping biden have anything to do with biden’s merits as a candidate or his ability to lead the country for four more years and i don’t think that’s going to be entirely lost on voters
I think that’s because those arguments wouldn’t feel responsive to people’s fears. I haven’t been hearing anyone suggest that Biden’s performance changes their view of how he’d govern (no one’s suggesting he resign), only how he’d campaign
I see your point, but I worry that the people whose fears are being taken into account here are the professional political class and committed Dems. Whereas the people whose fears actually matter in an election are those who are on the fence about who to vote for or whether it’s worth turning out.
I will absolutely concede that I have zero idea what happens in the minds of "undecided" voters and how different scenarios would affect turnout. I'd just say that the argument for Biden on policy is roughly the same as the argument for Harris, so you quickly return to discussing other tradeoffs.
I agree that no one is disputing the fact that Biden is old and diminished compared to his younger self. But it doesn't seem damning to me that the main conversation is about what you gain and lose by switching to Harris (or contested convention), just as we talk about voting for Biden vs. Trump.
I think a lot of it is also that nobody in the professional political class really wants to admit what everyone knows is true: this election is /overwhelmingly/ just (another) referendum on Trump. Everything else is using proxies to try and paper over that fact, which is also why they don't land
That's why the polls are weirdly unresponsive to what would, in other elections, be larger swings. It's why journalists and D politicians freaked out so hard over what is, in the end, just a poor debate performance. They'll write 200 pieces about Biden old, but it's /about/ fear of a Trump return
Completely agree, tho it is infuriating they channel that fear like this and not like endless pieces about what trump-2 would be, headed and footed by "and this is why the country cannot—must not—allow this monster even remotely near the levers of power"
There's nothing particularly savvy and wise and profound in the observation that Trump is a monster, and his election would have republic-endingly bad consequences to everyone living in the US, but it is still true, and it is still the most useful thing newspapers could write about the race
"WE DEMAND BETTER"
Okay, so vote for the guy that hasn't been convicted for fraud and hasn't been found liable for sexual assault, hasn't called for mass deportations and reversals of so many equal rights laws.
But hey, stand by your unyielding principles. I'm sure there won't be consequences.
Tbh i don’t really think hes bad and i think when hes easily been the best president in my lifetime using that as a descriptor doesn’t have a lot of utility
Hes got horrific policies but theyre inline with either long standing us policy or party preferences and any other nominee would support
Hes like the platonic ideal of a coalition leader thats the median voter and backs policies for various factions
a different candidate being better is much less the candidate and more that factional power balances and party as a whole would need to be different for a different nominee to have won
The only thing that matters is polling on what choice will people make if it's Biden and Trump in November. It doesn't matter if people think he's too old or should resign. What will it be if those are the options?
Still somewhat bemused that this is somehow all Biden's fault for not being able to slay the fascist rather than the media's fault for not pointing out that the fascist is a fascist.
I do think there is some extreme frustration that Biden-2020 was elected in a very large part on the basic top-line policy of "I will get rid of Trump and you won't have to deal with his bullshit anymore" and on that, at least, he (and other institutions, groups, etc) failed at that one big task
This is it entirely. I'll.vote for whatever Dem is on the ticket and all down ballot races too. But the Biden admin had one job: put a traitor behind bars and they have fucked around and we're very close to finding out
short of sending seal team 6 after him...
what was biden supposed to do?
trump is an entity today bcz hes been continually prop'd up and financed by the powerful and the stupid.
bidens done a great job w what he was handed, by no means perfect, but fuck!!!
what more was he supposed to do?
now there i wont argue.
i think garland was correct in moving purposely but like mueller was too shy/slow abt pulling the trigger.
i think its ALSO important to understand that he was trying to salvage a system while ignoring the fact there are SCOTUS members very busy burning it down.
No one listened to the media when they kept pointing out Biden was declining so why listen to calls of fascism? He is a convicted felon & proven rapist. No one hid this or played it down. Some ppl don't care, others can't be bothered. Others are fully into it.Biden needs to address this.
In fact the party needs to get its media campaign in gear & start putting out some viral spots & get that old man in some interviews starting w/ the NYT. He ought to be on every media out there plus the socials.
Agreed. In addition to core Trump supporters, there's a sizeable chunk of the moneyed classes that don't consider ending the republic-as-we-know-it to be a bad thing. Holding on to the hope that this bloc doesn't constitute an electoral majority, it seems that getting the word out is key.
a thing i'm carrying into this election is the abject fear that the Democrats will show more solidarity with their rich friends in the Republican party than with the American public
they don't believe they will be materially harmed by a Trump ascendancy, because wealth stands with wealth
Which Democrats, and what part of the American public are you referencing? An awful lot of the public, middle age white petite bourgeoisie in particular, really want a dictator to destroy the ppl they hate
I think tho it is reasonable & has been reasonable to question nominating Biden. However, I think it is by far more questionable to nominate Trump. What media ppl are saying is "we told you so." & while Biden can run the country ok probably, campaigning is different. & what happens in 25 or 26?
What happens when - sooner rather than later - he dies? Kamala Harris? What has she done as VP that makes me think she can pick up? These are the questions. And Biden just isn't who he was 4 yrs ago. This is clear.
Speaking of dying what are the rules if a presumptive nom/actual nom dies:
* before convention
* after convention, before election
* after election, before EVs are cast
* after EVs cast, before EVs certified
* after EVs certified, before inauguration
20th Amendment governs post-EC. But in general, the mechanics are different but bottom line result is the same at each stage: the running mate, if one has been named, becomes the nominee. Not necessarily by formal rule, but de facto outcome of whichever rules apply at each given stage.
Right. Formally:
Before convention: she becomes P via 25AS1, leads as incumbent
Post convention: she goes from VPC to PC by D internal rules
Post election, pre cert: bounces from VPE to PE by state rules on electors
Post-cert: bounces from VPE to PE by 20A
Post-Jan20: bounces from VP to P by 25AS1
I think this happened in the 19th century but not sure. Anyway 1. choose someone else 2. choose someone else 3. VP 4. VP I would assume there would be court cases tho challenging the VP. So this would be drawn out. But basically, the slot goes down the constitutional line I would think
And she would finish the term. So the elex would run as the normal sked. The thing is if he resigned now and Harris took the campaign over there is real worry she wouldn't win.
I suggest you take a good look at the past VPs in this country bc that's perception not reality. Right now she polls lower than Biden so I don't care if Quayle sat around working on his spelling. Harris needs to look capable at this moment.
Fwiw, I think the answer folks know and are somewhat actively suppressing is "we don't care if he makes it to 2028, we care if he makes it to nov 5" and a lot of folks tippie-toeing around it a bit
Not that it matters, but from a Euro view, we don’t really care that Biden wins. He’s been fine for us, but w/e. We care that he beats Trump, b/c that maintains relative stability for another 4 years. And Trump probably cannot manage a 2028 run, so we are less in danger whomever the 2028 noms are.
I wish more Americans thought that way but I think it helps that your governments are parliamentarian so the PM is understood to be part of a coalition in a way that our President isn’t.
This is really it. And if Biden wins (please god) the next immediate convo Dems need to have is “who’s next” in terms of dem leadership and candidacy. Cause we CANNOT do this again. Trump may be dead or informed by 28 but what he created will live on.
