Larry Summers said it would take an entire year of 10 percent unemployment to whip inflation. Jason Furman said it would take 15 percent!! prospect.org/economy/2024...
Remember all those 2022 predictions that getting inflation down would require years of very high unemployment? Here’s where we are now (using the Cleveland Fed nowcast for May)
That's because if anyone else tries to enter the room he famously jumps out the window. That's why they call him "Larry Leaper." There's no cartilege left in his knee. It's strictly bone to bone.
The guys that told us what a disaster canceling student debt would be (after generating the conditions that caused the student debt crisis).
Maybe we should stop listening to the big brain macro guys peddling their hunches and biases as science.
we learned we can have our cake and eat it too with immigration, so now we gotta shut down the immigration since it's disrupting how the world should work
Larry Summers is the most accurate living predictor of the future, as long as you assume that the future will be the exact opposite of what Larry says it will be.
They think that because people still "feel" like inflation is out of control, any attempt to say anything to the contrary in a "spiking the football" kinda way would sound out of touch and backfire. But they need to spike the football! Spike it as deep into the ground as you can!
As I and others have said, assuming something is self-evident to the American people is folly. It was Obama’s mistake and Biden is repeating it. Go back to what economists weee saying was going happen in January 2022; a lot of it did not happen because of Biden’s policies.
Jason Furman also predicted that student loan forgiveness would be massively inflationary.
Fortunately unknown factors perfectly offset the price increase, giving the appearance that forgiveness had no effect on inflation whatsoever.
x.com/jasonfurman/...
It's why we have to abandon the old school Keynesian thinking about inflation. I only teach econ at the high school level but I've incorporated a lot more behavioral into my lessons. We've become so conditioned to the employment-inflation model, corporations and policy makers can (1/ )
feel like one of the big stories of the last two decades (2008 crisis and following) is "we understand monetary policy even less well than we thought we did". And by "we" I don't mean me, I mean the experts, the really smart folks who really do know a lot.
Yeah, wages are rising, inflation is dropping, and unemployment is low (long term unemployment is higher but still not that high). I seem to remember economists INSISTING this could never possibly happen, and you especially can't have rising wages and rising or steady employment.
Ok but it's worth remembering that Larry Summers is a fucking idiot and no one should do anything he says in any situation literally ever. If he says "run, the building is on fire" you can bet I'm doing my own research on that.
