Everything's complicated and my hesitation about replacing Biden up to now has been informed by polls showing other candidates not doing much better. But a lot of people seem remarkably certain that Harris specifically could not win a general election for reasons I think they should say out loud.
There's a very specific personal vulnerability there that I'm surprised hasn't come up much on the right, but my sense is that doubt here is more about, uh, demographic concerns that haven't really been fleshed out or justified explicitly. Could be wrong.
This is very valid and true, but if the choice is between her a guy who cannot reliably complete sentences without a teleprompter...I dunno, man.
bsky.app/profile/lewm...
To be fair, the last time she was in a national election, everyone thought she would be a formidable candidate but she did terribly, and was widely considered a surprisingly poor campaigner. So there is a data point.
Anyway, if Biden stays in, which seems likely, I don't think telling people "no, he's fine, actually" for the next several months is tenable. I don't know what you say instead. But openly lying to voters over and over again about something they know to be untrue probably hurts Dems long-term. So.
This is what the numbers have looked like for ages. Again, not especially promising for anyone. The question is whether anyone else would be more likely to gain ground between now and November. bsky.app/profile/perr...
Laying my cards on the table: I think a black woman can definitely win and also that Harris is weak. She's tied to the Biden record and a mediocre campaigner; the Willie Brown thing is genuinely messy. Zero chance GOP opps don't know about it; the fact they haven't used it yet does scare me a bit.
No chance that we get an open contest now if Biden steps aside. It's him or Harris as a practical matter, so all of the above would have to be weighed carefully against Biden's own weakness. Not at all clear who comes out ahead. Ideal thing would be to go back in time and have a primary. So it goes.
But my broader concern is that this conversation is latently freighted with assumptions about demographics and electability that are worth confronting and that will affect other candidates moving forward. Can't confront them if people aren't saying what I think many are thinking.
I would prefer Harris because I think she would be better on Gaza and is obviously healthier, but I don’t know how to replace Biden at this point unless he decides to step down due to health issues. I am going to buy several more bottles of Pepto-Bismol—the one winner in this clusterfuck
Harris gives Dems a chance to make an affirmative case for their policies and forcefully attach Trump. With Biden it is just going to be arguing he is lucid enough for 5 months AND you still have to assure voters that Harris can take over in the likely event Biden can’t complete the term.
I don't know why Democrats keep thinking that the VP should be the next candidate for president. It's a placeholder position, and historically (Biden excepted), Democrats have a terrible record of getting former VPs elected unless the pres. dies while in office. Maybe Biden should try doing that.
Unless they both step aside. I'm not sure why there's this assumption that if Biden sees the light, Harris must choose to run.
If she is adamant about being the replacement candidate, I agree that it would be difficult and maybe self destructive to replace her.
As a practical matter — bring back the smoke filled room, some wheeling & dealing to arrive at a ticket? If it’s not Harris, she would have to be fully on board. Maybe she’d like to be AG? The next seat on the Supreme Court? The popular governors of two swing states would make a formidable ticket
I also worry that the right has spent 4 yrs fear-mongering about a potential Harris administration so they have tons of ammo (fair/true or not, mostly not) they will use to tear her down the second she steps in.
Agree, and it’s beyond frustrating that if she, Biden and other Dem leadership really want her to be next there’s no sign of having planned for any of this.
I seriously wished he put Abrams in instead of Harris. I think she is personally responsible for the Georgia win, and the sheer hard work she put in earned that kind of position.
She's also got loads of backbone. Stacy is tough. She and Buttigieg are my personal faves on the left. They have the resumes, but they also have serious game.
I was worried in 2020 about the political rot in San Francisco coming back to haunt Harris. It’s even more of a worry now with so many Willie Brown appointees in federal prison.
Yes, she would have to slightly surprise on the upside as a campaigner. But there is a chance the GOP overreach on the racial front, offending people, and she gets a witty put-down line that resonates. A debate could favour her, especially if Trump meltsdown under female taunts.
I think it’s known among the Fox News Cinematic Universe crowd, even if they wouldn’t recognize Brown’s name. It’s what the smarter ones in that world would recognize as the kernel of quasi-truth at the core of the rw “Joe and the Ho” meme (which is obviously saturated with misogyny and racism also)
A Harris-someone else ticket is clearly better than a Biden-Harris ticket. If someone thinks Harris is incapable of being president, they aren’t going to vote for her to be the VP of the guy who looks like he wandered away from an assisted living facility either.
This whole conversation really depends on if anyone actually believes that trump is an existential threat to democracy.
If that is the case, then there is zero reason to entertain Harris.
But nobody actually believes this, so that's why we are in this spot.
If Trump is as dire a threat as they say he is (and I agree), then all options have to be on the table. The party HAS to stop clinging to norms in a state of emergency.
It’s not ideal, but I think a negotiated ticket with leadership from various factions, would lead to the best result.
Third, Biden, who has been performing terribly as president and leader of the coalition for almost two years, can still rally a close loss due to anti Trump fervor.
Replace him with somebody who can string a sentence together, look vital, and hasn’t insulted wide swaths of the necessary coalition.
The negotiated ticket? First, elite cues: let Bernie, AOC, Pritzker, Cooper, and Newsom go to their wings of the party and make the case for a choice they were included on.
Second, emphasize the state of emergency. It’s too late in the battle to be bound by decisions made in 2020, let alone 1968.
For what it’s worth Whitmer outperforms Biden in the state where they’re close on name recognition. Not unreasonable to think a candidate like that would have room to grow.
None of this is going to happen though imo.
Which is a single state and Whitmer has 2 more years here and I don't want her to give up those 2 years. That said she absolutely should run next time (assuming there is a next time), she likely would be a forerunner for the next election.
I would suggest he just sit down with you and few other reasonable writers (e.g., not nyt) and we get some actual information on how he seems in a more normal context
I don’t think any rush. He can always just “slip” in shower in October and bow out (making the kamala racism issues kinda moot; not kamala as cop issues but bruenigs and carl will always be voting trump and i hope others will be more grown up about)
I feel like this polling shows non-Biden Dems doing much much better than in the past. Everyone being within the same 2-3 points is huge. And those that have more undecideds to win could be even more attractive as candidates.
But in fairness, other candidates haven’t been campaigning. There’s a huge swath of the country that is just starting to pay attention to the election and probably don’t even recognize all those names.
Best thing the Biden campaign could do right now is get Harris in front of as many cameras as possible. One antidote to voter concerns about the President's age and health is a competent, active Vice President.
Defenders of this strategy need to start talking about how they are going to hold people responsible for putting us into this position. I’m really fucking fed up and “eat your gruel and shut the fuck up” isn’t cutting it.
More Democratic self-laceration isn't great either, though. Especially with the circumstances. It's a real dilemma. And let's just all agree to disagree with whatever Tom Friedman is currently saying.
