ol tonyo

There's good reason to question whether Biden is up to the job, and if not, he shouldn't be president, let alone running for more. But otherwise? Dem certainty that he'll lose is nuts. With a bunch more polls in, 538 has him down by 2.3 pct points after a disaster week. That's bupkis!

Reply to

Uncle Dude

Yeah fair enough, just trying to answer, like academically, why one might consider a person who hasn't voted in the past "likely to vote."

Reply to

Uncle Dude

Fwiw Pew has a lot of good stuff on this if you're curious. Pollsters basically ask a bunch of Qs and then cross with vote history to see if likely to vote. IMO there are good reasons to be skeptical of the polls generally but NYT does know what they're doing. www.pewresearch.org/methods/2016...

2: Measuring the likelihood to votewww.pewresearch.org The survey literature has long shown that more respondents say they intend to vote than actually cast a ballot (e.g., Bernstein et al. 2001; Silver et al.

Reply to

The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter

where'd this chart come from?

Reply to

Noel French

For sure, I do think the admin's response to this one was more aggressive than is typical from them. To me, it seems inadequate to the moment. But I'm dumb, so I'm willing to trust they're keeping their powder dry for a reason. But i dunno, that speech expressed a helplessness that wasn't fun to me

Reply to

Noel French

Agreed, but isn't the fact that Biden (and his admin) isn't out there banging this very drum an indictment of him (and maybe his capacities)?

ah, sorry, i'll prepare for my block, not trying to stir shit up

Reply to

Kevin Elliott

Jesus, could he look like more of a nazi if he tried? (he tried)

Reply to

Avishay Ben-Sasson-Gordis

They're correlated with the state polls enough that it gives you some information. Biden's numbers in CA will be better than a national poll but his numbers in South Dakota worse. In the past couple of elections the Dem has needed to be +4 or so nationally to win.

Reply to

That’s Too Much, Colby

That's a really good result. I genuinely hope that's the state of the race in pa. To the Biden team's credit it seems like he's got a full press tour booked up over the next week.

Reply to

That’s Too Much, Colby

Yeah maybe they'd need to be a bit worse? It's not the national numbers that worry, it's the swing states. But also they're going to need a plan to win, and if the numbers stay this bad and Joe can't effectively message that seems like a problem. But maybe he's OK and all this is fixable.

I'd imagine the pollsters also want Biden himself to win (quite reasonably). Everyone's committed to that guy on this team. Releasing polls like that is probably not fun for them (but wth do i know, maybe it was from camp harris).

Reply to

post malone ergo propter malone

Yeah, like I'm aware that non-response issues are acute in the aftermath of a debate loss like this, etc. At the same time if you were to sketch the types of numbers that would show up in polls that would indicate a red-alarm problem, well these would be among them.

Reply to

Will Wilkinson 🏳️‍🌈

Also, while in the realm of fantasy, it's ok for biden to keep his powder dry here. If he wins, he wins. If he loses, he can figure out the autogolpe afterwards! (i am not being serious)

Reply to

ryan cooper

she also is capable of taking questions in front of a camera, which, you know, seems like it might be useful in teh next few months

Reply to

The Fig Economy

well, i mean, for better and worse i think he respects the separation of powers and the legitimacy of SCOTUS as an institution

Reply to

The Fig Economy

Yeah, i mean i think it is true. He'd have to persuade the men with guns but if they did he could pardon them and that'd be that. Though there are probably smarter fights to pick, which I think some people are seriously advocating.

Reply to

southpaw

It would make great TV!

It's just really notable that he's not out there in front of cameras answering questions and pushing his agenda. I liked the speech last night. But I suspect I'm grading on a curve. I don't know what the answer is but what's going on is not great

Reply to

❀°。der Siebenschläfer *.ﾟ✿ ⋆

Yeah, i think this is right, unfortunately. it's also deranged but here we are

Reply to

Paul Tree

Right, the culmination of a 50 year project to reverse Roe made sense, even if it was terribly sad and depressing. To fortify the unitary executive theory with near total legal impunity? No, I did not have that on teh bingo sheet.

Reply to

Daniel Gilmore

gonna go look at speakers to buy on the internet, you know, until john roberts arrests me bc steely dan is illegal

Reply to

That’s Too Much, Colby

haha yes! At least I remember always being very irritated with her wapo columns during the Obama years. But to her credit, I suppose, she did not like the direction the R party took in 2016. Maybe it was all dictated by her audience but the turn was noticeable.

Reply to

That’s Too Much, Colby

lol, yeah. Jen Rubin fighting the good fight. But i agree! it's dire and bleak for dems right now. But the R bench is really weak/unpopular -- they've sold it all for trump, which is disgusting and has been a deeply unpatriotic undertaking

Reposted by

ol tonyo

I wrote a quick note about the time Roosevelt prepared a speech in which he proposed to fight a Supreme Court ruling. 🗃️

a necessitous blog - Compelled to look beyonderauchway.github.io