Jon Green

@jongreen.bsky.social

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Assistant professor, Department of Political Science, Duke University
jgreen4919.github.io

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Jon Green

This is journalistic malpractice. The Biden admin was working on Parkinson's policy.

Breaking News: A Parkinson’s expert visited the White House eight times in eight months from last summer through this spring, according to official visitor logs. The administration has said that President Biden has no signs of the disease.

Parkinson’s Expert Visited the White House Eight Times in Eight Monthswww.nytimes.com The White House has said that President Biden has no signs of the disease and that there has been no reason to update the most recent testing, conducted in February.

Glasgow: 10/10

A thing about The Discourse is that it incentivizes and may even benefit in the long run from counterintuitive/contrarian arguments — if ideas are evolutionary, you want some diversity in how they interact — but this also means that in the short run most of these individual arguments will be bad.

Here it is, the dumbest thing you will read today www.nytimes.com/2024/07/04/o...

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Top-issue questions are useful, but they don't always capture the full range of how voters draw distinctions between candidates -- which may not be about policy at all. Here, we asked about the most important difference between Biden and Trump: www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/p...

9 out of 10 voters say there are important differences between Biden and Trump. Here’s what they see as the biggest ones | CNN Politicswww.cnn.com If there’s one thing that American voters overwhelmingly agree on, it’s that this year’s presidential election presents a stark choice. In the latest CNN poll by SSRS, 91% of registered voters say the...

raises lots of questions already answered by the chyron

That sounds suspiciously like something someone who would eat a human would say. (screenshot via @acyn.bsky.social on Twitter)

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Putting this here because it's like tweeting to the VIP section, but I'm gonna be on a search committee in the fall for a TT job in political science with a "data analytics" specialization. I'm especially keen to hear from PhDs who left for policy/industry that might want another go in academia.

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the conservative theory of law in one headline

Every sport except soccer has figured out “stop the clock when the play stops, start it when the play starts” and I don’t see why it feels the need to stand on tradition.

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a good way to alleviate concerns about Bidens debate performance / age *and* concerns about court overreach would be for Team Biden to schedule a short TV speech on it and give a firebrand performance about what he intends to do about it just sayin

today would be a good day to hear a vigorous rejection of the idea that the president is above the law from the current president of the United States

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Jon Green

The GOP SCOTUS ruling on Presidential immunity, summed up.

hate to be that guy but yeah try imagining how ~The Founders~ would feel about “the president can’t be charged for crimes committed as president”

It’s been really remarkable how incurious a lot of the Whitmer/Newsom/[someone other than Harris] takes have been regarding things like “what are the mechanics of nominating X?” or “does Y inherit Biden’s war chest?” from people ostensibly paid to be savvy enough to know the answers

A reason a handoff to Harris makes more sense than an open convention is the delegates were not selected with any intention of ensuring they represent party groups and interests. Maybe in a future cycle but not now. Do people calling for an open convention even know anything about the delegates?

“but the right wing will develop a conspiracy theory about it” can be said of literally any scenario here, including ones where nothing changes. really shouldn’t weigh into the decision either way

Tom Nichols has the dumbest possible anti-Harris case 1. Harris is an unremarkable VP (unlike almost all of them except his buddy Dick Cheney) 2. She has low approval from racists 3. A batshit conspiracy theory he made up that people will believe Biden has been Harris’s stalking horse since 2020

I think the DRS rules are silly. The goal is to go around the track as fast as possible. The car has a feature that makes it go faster. But you’re only allowed to use the feature in specific places on the track under specific circumstances.

“Maximize your reading potential by putting a hard ceiling on it.”

I can’t think of a clever caption for this. It just breaks my fucking heart.

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Jon Green

All of the Times coverage for the last decade seems to rest on the assumption that there is a reasonable half of the country that must be talked down to from on high and an unreasonable half that must be studied intensely because they won’t let the Times talk down to them

The Times editorial board thinks it has the standing and persuasive power to make a president drop out of his reelection race but also can't imagine Donald Trump campaigning on the message that the New York Times says Joe Biden isn't up for the job

11 dimensional chess: perform so badly at the debate you get some undecided voters to for the first time seriously consider the possibility that Trump could win

Voters: they’re mysterious!

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Jon Green

Israel under Netanyahu.

Comparativists: what’s the closest national model for what Trump & Reps are trying to do for US authoritarianism? What cases are close in part or whole?

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Jon Green

Our post-debate poll is up! projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-... Debate watchers thought Joe Biden gave a dismal performance. But it changed few people's votes.

Who Won The First Biden-Trump Presidential Debate?projects.fivethirtyeight.com We’re partnering with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the candidates take the stage.

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Just a really strange way to win something that is called a debate

fwiw Biden's giving a stump speech right now and seems...fine? makes whatever was going on last night all the more bewildering www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDKI...

WATCH LIVE: Biden speaks at first campaign event after debatewww.youtube.com YouTube video by The Hill

It's true that the standard poli sci take is that debates don't move votes, but I'm not sure the reasons why debates usually don't matter apply here. Either way, it's an empirical question and we'll know in a few days.

Not that it will make you feel any better but if you want to do alternate ticket fan fiction today you should pause and read Hollow Parties instead press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...

The Hollow Partiespress.princeton.edu A major history of America's political parties from the Founding to our embittered present

this was the moment I turned it off, fwiw

Especially if they coalesce in a way that supports an existing narrative that one campaign is pushing and the other is hoping to rebut!

There might be more conversation about Biden dropping out tomorrow than there was yesterday, but the politics of it don’t change. There is no timeline where everyone in the Democratic Party wakes up one morning and agrees to the same alternative candidate who isn’t Kamala Harris.

Swapping Biden out for a "generic Democrat" governor like Whitmer or Pritzker would obviously be smart but if you're an unpopular but powerful Dem like Kamala Harris or Hillary Clinton why would you go along with it instead of trying to contest at the convention for yourself?

I think it is legitimately difficult for a human being — even a professional news anchor or political opponent — to keep all of the individually disqualifying things Trump did during his first term straight

Trump accusing President Biden of a quid pro quo in Ukraine when THAT’S LITERALLY THE THING THAT HE DID AND WAS IMPEACHED FOR AND NOBODY SAID ANYTHING ABOUT THAT I AM GOING TO HAVE A FUCKING STROKE.