every poll is like "Biden falls behind Trump by 3 points in new poll of Rhode Island" and every special election is like "Dem who raised $13,000 comes within 2 points of winning district that was drawn specifically to elect a member of the Klan."
#OH06 special election tonight…results for the three counties that are done counting vs 2020
Harrison R+28 vs R+52
Monroe R+20 vs R+53
Noble R+28 vs R+63
I'd like to point out that it wasn't Dobbs that drove all over the holler getting those signatures
those were organizers who believe in freedom, even in Ohio
if you like this you can be part of it
movement.vote
And this is in elections where Republicans can raise money. The degree to which some swing state GOPs are completely fucked shouldn't be underestimated
Democrats traditionally outperform in special elections compared to what they do in the same districts in the generals. Specials are about turning out highly engaged voters and Dems are pretty good at that.
Not traditionally exactly. The pattern was the exact opposite not too long ago. But it does seem like there's been a major shift in high propensity voters to the Democrats' side. Republican culture is still focused on tactics to suppress marginal voter turnout. I wonder how quick they'll pivot.
Sure, but that tends to be because Democrats started flipping high-propensity suburban voters, which used to be the GOP's most loyal voters. This rural district where only 20% of the population has a college degree doesn't really fit that bill.
one special election is basically noise. a couple? a coincidence.
we're seeing a steady string of Dems outperforming in special elections, and that's a consistent predictor in November (of course, if Biden fucks this up, none of that matters).
We just had a trial where Trump & co were under oath saying how they gave bags of cash to pollsters to release positive polls. In 2016. I have a hard time believing that they've stopped doing that.
A plausible explanation is that Biden himself is particularly unpopular, even as people broadly like the Democratic party (or recoil from the Republican party)
I don't think it's just that. He didn't have a huge base of support in the Democratic primary (party elites coalesced around him as a not-Bernie consensus), and he won in 2020 as a "Not Trump" candidate. But even then, he dragged Dem congressional performance down relative to 2018 and 2022
Its also why Missouri "Freedom Caucus" republicans spent all session trying their damndest to kill citizen petitions because they are fucking dreading theres gonna be abortion on the ballot in november
They failed too, because they were too busy fighting their own party over petty grievances
this makes me sound like an unskewer, but it seems noteworthy that that democratic special election overperformance is still happening with the presidential campaign well underway.
I really, really hope that, "The Southern Baptist Convention owns your uterus and also I hate immigrants" turns out to be a complete electoral loser everywhere it's tried.
I alternate between hope and doom with the theory that Dems have had some coalition switch to high-propensity voters and that’s why they are doing well in low-turnout special elections. However, if true, I think it’s still probably better to be the party with the voters that vote
Absolutely. I haven't seen any analysis of how much is "Democrats are blowing out turnout numbers" and how much is "We can run superhero candidates with ease" but I will take it.
