Jason McDaniel

@valisjason.bsky.social

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Political scientist at San Francisco State University

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Jason McDaniel

My colleagues & I have studied the social media aftermath of mass shooting events for a decade. We’re still processing the horrifying, abhorrent, and tragic event yesterday, which appears to be an assassination attempt on former President Trump. In case they're useful, here are some first thoughts:

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Jason McDaniel

Remember that incompetence (& sometimes unreasonable expectations) are always more plausible than malign conspiracy theories when the facts aren’t known. Secret Service has been under scrutiny for dangerous organizational dysfunction for over a decade. www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/...

Secret Service under scrutiny over gunman’s access to a clear Trump viewwww.washingtonpost.com Republican congressional leaders are vowing to investigate what went wrong and calling on Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle to account for her decisions.

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Jason McDaniel

So… I recently gave a public talk in front of ~30 copies of someone else’s book on electoral reform/ PR. You can get mine on Amazon for as low as $6.62: a.co/d/iYMjhL3

More Parties or No Parties: The Politics of Electoral Reform in America: Santucci, Jack: 9780197630655: Amazon.com: Booksa.co More Parties or No Parties: The Politics of Electoral Reform in America [Santucci, Jack] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. More Parties or No Parties: The Politics of Electoral Refo...

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Jason McDaniel

Look, I don't have any special insight into what the president is or isn't going to do, but here is a deep dive on how the nomination rules intersect with Biden's decision making on staying or going. www.fhqplus.com/p/okay-lets-...

Okay. Let's talk about the rules and this Biden situationwww.fhqplus.com There are party rules in place for a lot of contingencies but they only take us so far

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Jason McDaniel

I’m looking for a copy of a recent paper called “Report of the Sub-group on Proportional Representation.” It’s popping up in GS citations but not available online. Anyone?

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Jason McDaniel

“In 1946 amid persistent racial divisions, popular radio series Adventures of Superman launched Operation Intolerance, a sequence of new episodes promoting equality, rejecting racial discrimination and exposing the KKK’s bigotry. We find lasting impacts…” dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...

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Jason McDaniel

Trying to stay out of the Biden internet debate, but wrote this piece about how the formal rules of the nomination process aren't really the problem. It's all about the informal ruleshttps://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/biden-replacement-president-race-democrat-history-rcna160923

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Jason McDaniel

This is so spot on from Julia. I talk *A LOT* about rules, but the formal rules I often discuss only take this discussion so far. There are other factors at play as well. Good stuff. Recommended reading for the day. www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...

Opinion | Democrats can replace Biden. But it won’t be like anything we’ve seen before.www.msnbc.com Thinking through how it might happen requires looking at what the formal rules say, what the informal practices are and what the voters want.

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Jason McDaniel

Alexander Hamilton, Federalist 69 avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century...

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Jason McDaniel

Today’s 538 podcast made an interesting point: — Despite Trump’s many issues, base remains with him so GOP elites fall in line with party leader — With Biden, ~75% of base think Dems have better shot with someone else, so looming question is whether Dem elites will follow base or party leader

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Jason McDaniel

The new expectation of immunity is only one way in which a second Trump presidency would operate outside of traditional limits and accountability. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Analysis | Trump would return to the White House unfettered and unassailablewww.washingtonpost.com A second Trump administration would not be bounded as the first one was.

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Jason McDaniel

538 forecast begins with 53% Biden, 47% Trump chances of victory as economic & political fundamentals move a slight Trump current polling lead to a slight Biden forecast: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-electio... PA is the most likely tipping point state, swing states are as expected

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Jason McDaniel

This is canon in the Oregon Republican facebook groups I follow. Biden landslide = obviously rigged. Biden narrow victory = rigged Trump narrow victory = rigged, was actually a landslide

The Heritage Foundation is already declaring the 2024 election rigged beyond repair

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Jason McDaniel

Julia Azari makes very interesting (and contemporarily relevant) observations about Brown v Board at 70, in our newsletter: goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/brown-at-s...

Brown at Seventygoodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com What the landmark Supreme Court decision tells us about politics, past and present

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Jason McDaniel

New at Tusk: Primary election reformers understand political science research; here's what they're trying to do despite it.

The reformers' agendaopen.substack.com Primary election reformers understand political science research; here's what they're trying to do despite it

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Jason McDaniel

It requires little imagination to see how cycles of protest and violence could unfold on a much larger scale if Trump is re-elected, with each clash becoming a rationale for expansion on both sides. Remember also that Trump wanted to use the Insurrection Act to send the military into urban areas.

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Jason McDaniel

If you need a break from campus politics, I've got party politics for you goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/if-the-gop...

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Jason McDaniel

This op-ed by @ryanenos.bsky.social makes the case that universities should practice "forbearance" when it comes to responding to student protesters who are breaking some university policies when protesting peacefully. www.thecrimson.com/article/2024...

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Jason McDaniel

Today's House primaries in PA feature a dearth of Republican women: Of the 19 GOP House candidates running today, just two are women. To get a sense of how lopsided this is, 12 out of the 25 candidates running for the House on the Democratic side are women. abcnews.go.com/538/live-upd...

Where are the female Republican candidates?abcnews.go.com 538 analysts live-blog the April 23 Pennsylvania primaries, which will set up general elections for president, U.S. House, Senate, state legislature and attorney general.

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Jason McDaniel

LLM's quality of answers to political questions varies based on party affiliation of the question asker, with answer quality and question topic correlating, finds @rmichaelalvarez.bsky.social & Morrier doi.org/10.48550/arX...

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Jason McDaniel

How Americans feel about Gaza. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

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Jason McDaniel

On the House Perpetual-Fiasco Machine - and who in the Republican conference is really to blame. (Hint: Everyone). My new one at Good Politics/Bad Politics. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/the-house-...

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Jason McDaniel

Last week, I wrote for FiveThirtyEight about the emerging participation gap--infrequent voters are markedly more pro-Trump. abcnews.go.com/538/vote-bac... It turns out that the gap is *much* more pronounced when the GOP candidate is Trump than when it is Haley.

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Jason McDaniel

Reply to

Michael Hobbes

I'll reiterate that I've been a college professor for 16 years, I make my living thinking about college students and interacting with them, and I still don't think about them as much as NYT and Atlantic writers seem to

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Jason McDaniel

Which colleges increase voting rates? For a long time, we've studied whether going to college shapes voting. But, does it matter *where* you go to college? Yes! A great deal. Check out my new paper with Smith, Bell, and Imlay. iza.org/publications...

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Jason McDaniel

Some assorted thoughts on the Chemerinsky incident at Berkeley. As a Jewish con law professor who writes on antisemitism, has liberal but not anti-Zionist views on Israel, and loves to host students at my house for celebratory dinners, this incident obviously hits close to home.

Assorted Thoughts on the Chemerinsky Incidentdsadevil.blogspot.com If you

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Jason McDaniel

How to explain different findings on the effects of gun violence? It's because work finding large effects on vote doesn't account for parallel trends violations. Once corrected, shootings show little evidence of sparking large electoral change Now out at APSR www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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Jason McDaniel

I found no effect of the same sex marriage ballot measures in 2004 - but abortion rights in 2024 may be different b/c it’s a long-standing concern not a newly conjured one www.degruyter.com/document/doi... www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...

Biden allies dust off Bush's 2004 playbook, subbing abortion for gay marriage on the ballotwww.nbcnews.com Alums of George W. Bush’s 2004 campaign and Biden allies tell NBC News the strategy to put abortion-rights initiatives on the 2024 ballot is familiar — and could help defeat Trump.

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Jason McDaniel

Battling with @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social about party weakness in my inaugural Good Politics/Bad Politics piece goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/who-to-bla...

Who to blame if you're mad about the Trump-Biden rematchgoodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com The 2024 contest that wasn't is a showcase of party weakness

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Jason McDaniel

We may be approaching the level of Supreme Court rejection last seen after Dred Scott v. Sandford in 1857. This Court made illegitimate by its minority rule appointments & rights-violating rulings. Other branches & the people should treat it as such — a nullity, a pretender, an imposter, a usurper.