mjec

@mjec.net

Followers

317

Following

412

Posts

they/them

Reposted by

12/ To conclude, this is why having response rates in the gutter is a problem. The lower the response rate, the more important any asymmetry in the response rate affects your measurement, confusing the thing you're trying to infer. Since you can't measure the asymmetry, you're just kinda hosed.

In apropo of a thread with iirc @proptermalone.bsky.social about the crosstabs in low-response-rate phone polls, here's a semi-quantitative analysis of why I'm a little dubious about poll results with a >1% response rate. It comes down to Bayes' theorem P(A|B) = P(B|A) P(A) / P(B)

I dunno, at least drawing a sword from a stone lets everyone have an equal go

Honestly, strange women lying in ponds distributing swords doesn't seem like such a bad process right now.

Reposted by

mjec

Now everyone--The Times and, sorry to say, MSNBC--is noting every missed syllable. The man has a stutter. I don't stutter but I am a mushmouth who speaks too fast and slurs words. I've had to overcome fear of public speaking. I have empathy for Biden. The press has empathy for no one (but Trump).

Reposted by

mjec

I have no idea the best path re Biden but I do know a solid week straight of “Biden Old” and “Rich Dems Worried” above-the-fold stories are *obscene* in the face of SCOTUS using the Constitution to wipe their asses purely in the service of reinstating a felon rapist as president. Crazy-making shit.

Reposted by

mjec

it's time for my favorite ever law review student note: harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-13...

watching british election returns the question struck me: what would democrats do with a landslide? what’s the wish list? beyond saving democracy of course.

Reposted by

mjec

The Helsinki library is like the apotheosis of Library As Useful Public Space. I am in awe.

Reposted by

mjec

Forget all previous entries. THIS is the ultimate nightmare blunt rotation.

This is the most fucked up shit Tablet has ever done

Reposted by

mjec

there's a certain irony that liberals who have spent four years yelling at leftists who criticize Biden at all for any reason have now, in one week, done more damage to Biden's candidacy than all those leftists combined

I think the freakout has been absurd and overblown and far more damaging than the debate itself, which would have been survivable if everyone had been willing to circle the wagons and push back on it I am, from a purely pragmatic standpoint, extremely concerned that the damage cannot be overcome

Reposted by

mjec

Reply to

Pwnallthethings

Anyway, billionaires spend a lot of money on depriving their opponents of the right or will to vote, and they aren't opening their wallet out of the kindness of their hearts. It's because it does, when all is said and done, matter quite a lot

Reposted by

mjec

Keeping Trump out of the White House isn’t the only thing that needs doing and it isn’t enough to solve all problems facing the country & world but if it isn’t done then all those problems get exponentially worse in ways I don’t even know how to express and it scares me when people pretend otherwise

Reposted by

mjec

The NYPD restored more than 2,000 missing discipline records to its public database of uniformed officers, weeks after ProPublica revealed data reliability issues. But it also removed case numbers, making future oversight more difficult.

NYPD Restores Thousands of Missing Records but Removes Case Numbers From Its Discipline Databasewww.propublica.org The department restored more than 2,000 missing discipline records to its public database of uniformed officers, weeks after ProPublica revealed data reliability issues. But it also removed case numbe...

Reposted by

mjec

🚨New expert survey data from Bright Line Watch🚨 93% of experts surveyed before the ruling (starting June 20) say that SCOTUS upholding Trump’s immunity claim threatens democracy 60% say it represents an extraordinary threat 27% say it represents a serious threat (Full report coming next week.)

Reposted by

mjec

Whether you agree as to whether this is the most dangerous Court since Taney's (the case @kevinmkruse.bsky.social makes here) there's another key point about the comparison: Taney's Court had only a fraction of the power and authority over American politics & society that Roberts' Court does 1/

I've seen enough -- this is the most radical, dangerous, arrogant, out-of-control Supreme Court in American history, and it needs to be treated as such. open.substack.com/pub/kevinmkr...

The Radical Roberts Courtopen.substack.com The current Supreme Court of the United States has just cemented its place in history as the most radical Supreme Court ever. For a century and a half, that dishonor has gone to the antebellum court l...

The further it could have gone is benchmarked by the fifth fucking circuit

Analysis | The Supreme Court’s conservative supermajority continued to shift the law to the right in 2024 but did not go as far as it could have. Sometimes, it punted. Here are our big takeaways:

Key takeaways from the Supreme Court term that upended Trump’s trialwww.washingtonpost.com The Supreme Court’s conservative supermajority continued to shift the law to the right in 2024 but did not go as far as it could have. Sometimes, it punted.

Reposted by

mjec

1/ Let me explain one way that today's Trump immunity decision threatens the survival of the Republic. Under today's ruling, a President would be immune for any way in which he used the military (a "core function"), even to kill American citizens in America. Theoretically, the soldiers who . . .

Reposted by

mjec

Reply to

b-boy bouiebaisse

roberts essentially ignores the purpose of separation of powers, which was not to create entirely separate spheres of action but to prevent the emergence of unchecked authority. instead, he says, separation of powers *demands* unchecked authority.

Reposted by

mjec

roberts’ reasoning is fundamentally (lower-case “r”) anti-republican. i know we dunk on the framers here but roberts has issued a rebuke of the revolutionary assumption that concentrated, unaccountable power is a fundamental threat to liberty.

It's just hilariously disingenuous. Imagine looking at, say, ALL OF HUMAN HISTORY and concluding that the biggest threat to liberty isn't abuse of power, but powerful people refraining from sufficiently wielding their authority out of fear that they might one day be held accountable.

Reposted by

mjec

I really cannot emphasize how catastrophically bad the Court's ruling was. I do my best not to exaggerate about these kinds of things but I am still kind of in shock

Reposted by

mjec

I can’t believe the Supreme Court just ruled that the president can sleep outdoors in a public space.

Reposted by

mjec

I don’t think it’s an exaggeration at all to say the decision threatens the Republic. I might not have said so in 2015, before I saw how triumphantly lawless and autocratic the President could be, and how so many people would applaud it or at least shrug.

My friend and colleague Ken White has written a great thread describing some (but far from all) of the enormous problems with today's decision by Chief Justice Roberts granting Donald Trump criminal immunity on grounds never before accepted by any court. Today's decision threatens the Republic.

Reposted by

mjec

It's important to note that Trump tried to order this at least twice we know of during his regime.

right. the president could order troops to suppress protesters using live fire and the supreme court would extend that absolute immunity

Reposted by

mjec

Reply to

Robert Black

"Dictatorship" is another word that should be used more frequently and plainly.

Trump Is Running for Dictatorwww.theunpopulist.net The press should say that, not euphemize an ugly truth

Reposted by

mjec

Reply to

Paul Crider

Not the main point, but a long-running pet peeve is I would prefer they simply use Trump's name, and derivatives Trumpist / Trumpism, rather than MAGA. It's a cult of personality. Refer to it by name, not by its slogan.

Reposted by

mjec

There are two elements to the immunity decision that are particularly extreme in a way that many will miss: (1) motive is irrelevant and (2) immune acts are not just excluded from prosecution, they’re excluded from evidence. /1

Reposted by

mjec

I will take the L here. I absolutely did not think the Court was going to do this. You may mock me now

Genuinely curious what the hell john roberts was thinking

What if Biden just refused to leave office? (This is the latest in a series of ideas I call "Biden prevents Trump from taking power in a way that requires Biden to lose legitimacy and spend the remainder of his life in prison, in exchange for restoring competitive democracy")

Reposted by

mjec

Even in the best case (Trump doesn't win and we retain a president with some sort of conscience), living under these conditions will be profoundly corrosive—of our democracy, of our fundamental constitutional freedoms, of each of us as a human being. We simply cannot allow this to be the law.

The Court has purported to strip us of all legal recourse for crimes committed by the most powerful person in the nation. Each and every one of us is now, effectively, at the mercy of an autocrat, who could order our death if he simply made the pretense of connecting it to his official duties.

Reposted by

mjec

frankly, the first defeat that we can hand them, in November, is the easiest possible one we are going to be offered, and we'd be fools not to make it happen.

a thing to remember, in all of this horror, is that these are not the actions of a political party that is confident it represents the will of the people, and who is currently out of power and enslaved to a deeply flawed avatar. the struggle is not over and they have not won

Reposted by

mjec

If nothing else it would be a funny test of trying to find the most egregious.possible case Clarence Thomas could refuse to recuse himself from

Clarence Thomas unquestionably committed tax fraud on his motorcoach deal and the president has the power to put him in handcuffs this afternoon, in his official capacity in charge of the IRS and federal law enforcement